Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from February 2nd to February 9th, 2026, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market saw a slight decline, with prices falling from 10,400 RMB/ton to 10,033.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.53%. The market was generally weak during this period, with suppliers softening their offers, downstream buyers finishing pre-holiday stockpiling, and demand weakening. These multiple factors combined to drive a slight price drop.

Market Analysis

Cost side: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined during this period. Market expectations for energy demand cooled somewhat, coupled with increased risk aversion before the holiday, leading to a pullback in crude oil prices from their highs. This weakened cost support for the 1,3-butadiene industry chain. Naphtha prices followed crude oil fluctuations, with an overall slight downward shift in the center of price. The cost support for 1,3-butadiene weakened compared to the previous period, providing room for market price corrections. As of February 6th, the settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $63.55 per barrel. The settlement price of the April contract for Brent crude oil futures was $68.05 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, most of the major domestic 1,3-butadiene producers maintained normal operation, resulting in a stable overall supply level. The market had ample spot supply, and suppliers were more willing to lower their prices compared to the previous period. Some companies were offering discounts to recover funds before the holiday.

Sinopec's sales companies were setting the listed price for 1,3-butadiene at 10,300 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with 392 tons sold externally at a base price of 9,900 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit at Lianyungang Petrochemical was operating normally, with prices set at 10,000 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua Chemical's Phase II 200,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with no plans for external sales today.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of BR in Northwest China declined slightly on February 9th, while the futures market for BR  fluctuated. Merchants lowered their offers by 100-150 RMB/ton. As of February 6, the mainstream price of 1,3-butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande was 12,800-13,000 RMB/ton.

The BR industry saw a gradual decline in operating rates this cycle, with pre-holiday stockpiling nearing its end, leading to a significant weakening of 1,3-butadiene procurement demand and insufficient support from market demand. Domestic high SBR capacity utilization rates decreased slightly month-on-month, with plant operating rates gradually decreasing as the Spring Festival approached, resulting in a reduction in weekly output and a slowdown in raw material procurement. While the decline in 1,3-butadiene prices from their high levels has alleviated some cost pressures on downstream users, downstream enterprises were primarily focused on completing pre-holiday orders, resulting in generally low purchasing intentions and a sluggish market trading atmosphere, providing insufficient support for 1,3-butadiene prices.

Market outlook

In summary, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a slight price correction this cycle due to three main factors: weakening cost support, ample supply, and weakening demand. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened the bottom support level. On the supply side, stable plant operations and ample spot supply, coupled with downstream pre-holiday stockpiling and gradually weakening immediate demand, resulted in a loose supply-demand balance that led to a weak market consolidation. In the short term, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises will gradually shut down for holidays, further reducing market activity. Suppliers may continue their strategy of offering discounts to boost sales, leaving room for a slight price correction. However, considering that major plants have no planned concentrated maintenance shutdowns and port inventories remain low, the potential for a significant price drop is limited. It is expected that the domestic 1,3-butadiene market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with close attention needed to crude oil price trends and post-holiday resumption of work expectations.

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