Entering 2026, China's 1.3-butadiene market has sustained its robust upward momentum. As prices steadily climb, profits across the industrial chain have simultaneously increased, making butadiene a focal point within the chemical sector.

This week, multiple petrochemical enterprises raised their ex-factory prices for butadiene products. Among them, Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) have implemented two price hikes for 1.3-butadiene products this week, with the highest increase reaching RMB550 per ton.

Driven by increased export orders and tight spot market supply, domestic 1.3-butadiene supply-demand dynamics have recently tightened. This, coupled with sustained high operating rates in key downstream sectors like synthetic rubber, has further exacerbated supply constraints and jointly fueled price increases.

As of today, the delivered price of 1.3-butadiene in central Shandong stands at approximately RMB9,800 per ton, marking a 12% increase this month and a rebound of over 40% from last November's low.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, domestic 1.3-butadiene production rose as plants in Fushun, Jilin, and Sichuan resumed operations, leading to ample supply. Concurrently, seasonal maintenance shutdowns at numerous downstream facilities suppressed demand, leading to a significant decline in butadiene prices.

However, this trend reversed in mid-to-late November. Industry sources noted two key factors: increased export orders, with substantial domestic capacity now supplying overseas markets, and a sharp reduction in imported 1.3-butadiene, resulting in tightening domestic supply.

Customs statistics reveal that China's 1.3-butadiene imports reached 56,160.479 tons in November 2025, a 60.13% month-on-month increase, while exports for the same month stood at zero.

On the demand side, operating rates for downstream sectors—including various synthetic rubbers and resins—remained steady at around 80%, further bolstering 1.3- butadiene prices.

Notably, the price surge has significantly improved the theoretical profit margin for butadiene.

This week, the theoretical gross profit per ton for 1.3-butadiene produced via the C4 extraction process reached approximately RMB2,376, an increase of about 11% from last week. The gross profit margin for this process has exceeded 25% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the theoretical gross profit per ton for butadiene produced via the oxidation dehydrogenation process reached approximately RMB681, a nearly 700% increase from last week.

Regarding market outlook, although the price surge has already imposed cost pressures on downstream industries, the tight supply situation for 1.3-butadiene is unlikely to see significant changes in the near term. Price increases for the product have been relatively smoothly implemented, and further upward potential remains.

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