Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Price Analysis System, from January 1st to January 15th, 2026, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market showed a significant upward trend, with prices rising from 8,333.33 RMB/ton to 9,483.33 RMB/ton, a cumulative increase of 13.8%. During this period, the market as a whole fluctuated upwards, with a scarcity of low-priced goods, firm supplier sentiment, and steady downstream demand providing strong support. Multiple factors jointly contributed to the price increase. The following analysis will delve into the cost, supply, and demand aspects in detail.

Market analysis

Cost Perspective: According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards during this period, providing solid cost support for the 1,3-butadiene industry chain. Geopolitical conflicts and market concerns about the stability of global energy supply, coupled with a marginal improvement in demand expectations, drove up crude oil prices. Although naphtha prices experienced some fluctuations during this period, they generally remained at a relatively high level, laying the foundation for higher 1,3-butadiene prices.

Supply side: Sinopec's various sales companies were quoting 1,3-butadiene at a listed price of 9,550 RMB/ton.,

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with 280 tons of product available for bidding and external sales at a reserve price of 9,300 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a listed price of 9,600 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a price increase of 200 RMB/ton, now at 9,600 RMB/ton.

Demand side: As a core downstream industry of 1,3-butadiene, the BR industry had maintained high operating rates during this cycle, with robust purchasing demand providing solid fundamental support for the 1,3-butadiene market. In terms of production, domestic high-cis BR capacity utilization continued to rise, reaching 79.15% in early January, a 1.97 percentage point increase month-on-month. Weekly production reached 31,800 tons, a 2.55% increase month-on-month. High plant utilization rates had driven stable demand for 1,3-butadiene. Although rising 1,3-butadiene prices have squeezed BR processing margins, the theoretical production profit for BR this week was only 27 RMB/ton, a continued decrease from previous periods. However, the industry still maintained a high willingness to operate, demonstrating strong resilience in its demand for 1,3-butadiene raw materials.

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 15th, the mainstream price of BR in Sichuan was 12,100 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of BR in Dushanzi was 12,600 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Overall, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market in this cycle experienced a significant price increase driven by three main factors: cost support, tight supply, and robust demand. On the cost side, stable and rising crude oil prices strengthened bottom-line support. On the supply side, plant maintenance, inventory reduction, and positive external market trends provided multiple favorable factors. On the demand side, high operating rates in the BR industry provided sustained demand. The imbalance in supply and demand drove the market upward. In the short term, several 1,3-butadiene plants are expected to restart in late January, potentially easing supply marginally. However, due to expected increases in exports and decreases in imports, net imports may continue to shrink, and port inventories are expected to remain low, maintaining suppliers' strong pricing sentiment. On the demand side, BR plant operating rates are likely to remain high, and although the tire industry experiences seasonal fluctuations in operating rates, the underlying demand remains unchanged, providing continued support for the 1,3-butadiene market. It is expected that the domestic 1,3-butadiene market will maintain a high-level fluctuating pattern in the short term. Key factors to watch include the progress of plant restarts, crude oil price trends, and the transmission of profits to downstream industries.

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