Price trend

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market in January 2026 showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease, but with an overall significant rise. Prices reached a recent high, and market supply and demand dynamics intensified. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market price increased from 8,187.5 RMB/ton to 10,562.5 RMB/ton, representing a significant increase of 29.01% during the period.

Market Analysis

This month's market trend showed distinct phases, with an initial surge followed by a pullback after encountering resistance, but overall remaining at a high level: At the beginning of the month, supported by tight supply, rising international prices, and expectations of pre-holiday stocking by downstream buyers, the market experienced a strong rally. Companies showed a strong willingness to maintain high prices, continuously raising their quotes, leading to a rapid price increase; In the middle of the month, driven by the strong performance of downstream synthetic rubber futures and a heated spot market trading atmosphere, prices continued to reach new highs, with tight supply of spot resources and difficulty finding low-priced goods; Towards the end of the month, as prices rose sharply, downstream raw material cost pressure increased significantly, and profits continued to be squeezed. Purchasing activity decreased noticeably, and high-priced transactions encountered resistance, leading to a temporary market correction. However, due to the lack of significant easing in supply, the correction was limited, and the overall market remained at a high level, resulting in a substantial price increase during the month.

Cost side:

As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.37 per barrel.

Supply side:

In January 2026, the domestic 1,3-butadiene supply remained tight, driven primarily by plant maintenance and reduced imports. Limited spot market availability and strong pricing sentiment among companies led to continuous price increases. This month, several domestic 1,3-butadiene plants entered maintenance periods, and some companies experienced temporary plant shutdowns, limiting the release of effective industry capacity and resulting in a contraction of domestic supply.  Simultaneously, limited available supply in the international market, coupled with tight supply in major producing regions such as South Korea and Southeast Asia, led to a significant reduction in the arrival of overseas shipments. This further reduced the availability of resources in the domestic spot market, highlighting the tight supply-demand balance. Against this backdrop, major domestic producers continuously raised their prices. Sinopec's various sales companies, Satellite Chemical, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical, among others, repeatedly increased their listed/export prices, shifting the overall pricing system upwards and becoming the core driver of the significant price increase this month.

As of January 29th, the listed price for 1,3-butadiene at Sinopec's various sales companies was 10,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 2,300 RMB/ton compared to 8,300 RMB/ton on December 29th.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with 336 tons available for external sale at a base price of 10,120 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang petrochemical plant's 90,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price increase of 200 RMB/ton, bringing the price to 10,400 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua Chemical's Phase II 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit was also operating normally, with a starting bid of 84 tons and a reserve price of 10,200 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

In January 2026, domestic 1,3-butadiene downstream demand showed a trend of initial strength followed by weakness. Early in the month, pre-holiday stocking demand provided strong support, but towards the end of the month, cost pressures significantly weakened demand, leading to increasing supply-demand tension. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the downstream synthetic rubber (BR and SBR) industry began pre-holiday stocking.  Coupled with relatively high operating rates in the industry, this led to robust demand for 1,3-butadiene, resulting in a heated spot market and driving prices upward. However, as 1,3-butadiene prices rose sharply, the raw material costs for downstream synthetic rubber increased significantly, while price increases in finished products were difficult to pass on. The price difference between upstream and downstream narrowed continuously, putting significant pressure on the profits of BR and SBR companies. Some companies were forced to reduce production, shifting from active stocking to only purchasing for immediate needs. Towards the end of the month, high 1,3-butadiene prices encountered resistance, and the market experienced a temporary correction. Overall, pre-holiday stocking provided temporary support, but profit pressure became the core factor limiting sustained demand, leading to a market decline after the initial surge.

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of January 29th, the BR market in East China remained at a high level. Futures prices fluctuated slightly upwards, with suppliers raising their offers by 50-100 RMB/ton. As of January 29, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu 1,3-butadiene rubber were 13,100-13,300 RMB/ton; some private brands were quoted at around 12,950-13,100 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

The domestic 1,3-butadiene market will continue to be dominated by the interplay of supply and demand, and prices are likely to remain in a high-level fluctuating range. The tight supply situation is unlikely to fundamentally improve in the short term; plant maintenance and reduced imports will continue to support prices, and companies remain strongly inclined to maintain high prices, limiting the scope for price declines. On the demand side, the pressure on downstream profits has not yet eased, and the end-use tire industry is still in its seasonal off-season. After the pre-holiday stocking demand gradually subsides, the limited follow-up of essential demand will constrain further price increases, making a unilateral upward trend unlikely.

Overall, it is expected that the domestic 1,3-butadiene market will mainly fluctuate at high levels in February 2026. Before the Spring Festival, prices will remain generally high due to tight supply. After the holiday, key factors to watch include the progress of downstream companies resuming production, the status of plant maintenance and restarts, international market price trends, and the recovery of end-user demand.

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