Data indicates that total domestic alumina inventories have continued to rise, reaching 5.62 million metric tons. Electrolytic aluminum plants have accumulated alumina stocks of 3.838 million metric tons, ensuring ample raw material reserves.

Since December last year, alumina futures prices have maintained a fluctuating consolidation pattern, testing a low near 2,600 RMB/ton and rebounding to around 3,000 RMB/ton before encountering resistance.

Data indicates that China's bauxite output reached 5.34 million tons in January this year, showing significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth. While Shanxi Province saw a year-on-year decline due to environmental and resource factors, production increased in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Henan. Currently, domestic ore production in southern regions remains stable, while northern mines are gradually resuming operations, ensuring overall ample supply at the mining end. Alumina plants maintain high raw material inventories; as of last Thursday, bauxite stockpiles at alumina plants increased by 264,000 tons week-on-week to 58.1555 million tons. With sufficient supply, alumina plants show low willingness to purchase bauxite at premium prices, keeping bauxite prices weak and stable. Spot prices in Shanxi and Henan provinces saw a slight decline of 5-10 RMB/ton last week. Imported ore prices also continued to weaken, with the latest CIF price for Guinean-origin 45% Al, 3% Si bauxite at major Shandong ports dropping to $61/dry ton.

On the import front, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 200.532 million tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. Imports from Guinea accounted for 74% of the total, a 35.2 percentage point increase year-on-year. Currently, Guinea's bauxite shipments remain stable with high port volumes, while Australia's rainy season continues to impact mining and shipping operations. As of last weekend, domestic port inventories stood at 24.91 million tons, up 719,000 tons from the previous week.

According to relevant data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in January reached 7.3856 million tons, down 1.8% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, primarily due to scheduled maintenance at some enterprises and environmental factors. Since the second half of last year, China's installed alumina capacity has remained stable. As of last Thursday, the nation's total installed metallurgical-grade alumina capacity remained at 110.32 million tons/year, with operating capacity at 85.88 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 77.84%. Shandong's operating rate remained unchanged, while Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi saw slight increases, and Guizhou experienced a minor decline.

Recent production outages at some alumina plants for maintenance have caused weekly output to decline slightly from its peak. Overall, operational capacity remains high, maintaining significant supply pressure.

Data indicates domestic alumina inventories continue to climb, reaching 5.62 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum plants have accumulated 3.838 million tons of alumina stockpiles, ensuring ample raw material reserves. In-transit and terminal stockpiles have shown significant growth. Aluminum oxide plants, concerned about continued post-holiday price declines and sales pressure from downstream aluminum plants actively reducing inventories, accelerated shipments before the holiday. Since January, aluminum oxide inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have resumed accumulation, with total inventories increasing by 43,600 tons last week to 308,800 tons. Warehouse receipts rose by 46,900 tons to 218,000 tons.

Spot alumina prices remain weak. In early February, the composite spot price stabilized at 2,646 RMB/ton, slightly above the current futures contract. Spot transactions included a Xinjiang aluminum plant's tender for 10,000 tons at 2,920 RMB/ton delivered, and a Guangxi transaction for 5,000 tons at 2,620 RMB/ton ex-factory.

Downstream outlook: China's total primary aluminum output in 2025 is projected at 45.016 million tons, up 1.01 million tons or 2.4% year-on-year. Data shows January's domestic primary aluminum production reached 3.7986 million tons, showing little month-on-month change while rising 2.7% year-on-year. As of the end of January, China's installed electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 46.21 million tons, with operating capacity at 44.996 million tons. Enterprise capacity utilization rates remained at high levels, approaching ceiling capacity. Weekly electrolytic aluminum output reached 859,000 tons last week.

With weak alumina prices and declining auxiliary material costs, coupled with relatively firm primary aluminum prices, the theoretical average profit margin for the primary aluminum industry expanded to over CNY7,000 per ton in January. This intensified the concentration of profits within the primary aluminum segment of the industry chain. Primary aluminum producers still have incentives to maintain high operating capacity, but the room for further increases is limited, resulting in a modest boost to alumina demand.

Overall, as an intermediate product, alumina is less affected by sharp fluctuations in nonferrous metal prices and is more influenced by its own supply-demand dynamics. Abundant bauxite resources and persistently weak prices have driven down alumina production costs. While installed alumina capacity remains stable, recent small-scale maintenance-related production cuts have slightly reduced operating capacity from previous highs, though it still remains at elevated levels. Total alumina inventories continue to rise, with SHFE inventories also returning to an upward trend, and spot prices remain weak. In the short term, alumina prices are likely to continue hovering at low levels.

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