According to SMM statistics, China's alumina installed capacity reached 110.32 million tons by 2025, with actual operating capacity at 89.41 million tons. The industry's overall operating rate stood at approximately 81%, indicating a pronounced market supply surplus.

Looking ahead to 2026, four new domestic projects are expected to come online sequentially, adding a combined 8.6 million tons of capacity. This will elevate China's total installed capacity to 118.92 million tons, further intensifying supply pressure in the alumina market.

Notably, approximately 7.6 million tons of this new capacity will be located in Guangxi. Historically, relatively tight alumina supply in southern China has kept Guangxi's market prices consistently higher than other domestic regions. However, as this new capacity comes online, Guangxi's local supply-demand dynamics will undergo a significant shift—transitioning from tight supply to surplus, potentially mirroring the current market conditions in Shandong. We anticipate that the concentrated release of this capacity will exert strong downward pressure on alumina prices both regionally and nationwide.

Meanwhile, overseas markets continue to expand. By the end of 2025, overseas alumina capacity reached 77.797 million tons, including 12.26 million tons in India and 7.5 million tons in Indonesia. In 2026, Indonesia and India will add 1 million tons and 500,000 tons of capacity respectively, highlighting Asia's pivotal role in future global alumina supply growth. The continuous release of overseas capacity will further intensify global market competition, exerting additional downward pressure on domestic prices.

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