In 2025, China's alumina market showed a trend of significant fluctuations, with prices falling all the way from the historical high of the year to around the cost line. Staged, from January to early April 2025, alumina prices fell rapidly from a high level. On the one hand, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the two Australian alumina plants, Yarwun and Queensland, which were forced to reduce production due to a natural gas pipeline fire, resumed production one after another, and overseas alumina prices continued to weaken; on the other hand, domestic new production capacity was gradually released, the supply pattern turned loose, and alumina prices continued to be under pressure. From mid-April to late July 2025, affected by cost pressures, domestic alumina enterprises' willingness to overhaul increased, and the operating rate declined somewhat. In addition, the Guinean authorities revoked the exploration licenses of several mining companies and the Axis mining area suspended operations, triggering market concerns about bauxite supply, and alumina prices rebounded from a low level. From the end of July to December 2025, as corporate profits recovered, domestic alumina operating capacity rebounded to a high level. During the same period, the suspended mines in Guinea resumed production one after another, bauxite prices fell, the production costs of alumina enterprises moved down, and the momentum for production reduction weakened significantly. Under the continuous suppression of the high supply pattern, alumina prices entered a downward channel again.
In 2025, the overall center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices shifted upward. In stages, from January to the first half of March 2025, electrolytic aluminum prices showed a relatively strong trend. Despite the Trump administration's continued imposition of tariffs, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January-February 2025 fell short of expectations, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar boosted aluminum prices. From the second half of March to the first ten days of April 2025, the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" measures impacted the market, global stock and futures markets fell sharply, and the price of Shanghai aluminum followed with a deep correction. From mid-April to December 2025, multiple positive factors were continuously released. The United States suspended the implementation of additional clauses of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries and regions for 90 days, major economies such as China and the United States reached relevant cooperation agreements, and market risk appetite rebounded significantly. In September 2025, the Federal Reserve restarted the interest rate cut cycle, overseas aluminum smelters reduced production, and global aluminum inventories remained low. Under the resonance of multiple positive factors, the center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices moved upward steadily.
In 2025, the price of China's aluminum alloy ADC12 showed a trend of first declining and then rising, with the annual price center moving up compared to 2024. In terms of stages, from January to the first half of March 2025, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the supply of China's waste aluminum market was tight, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 strengthened accordingly. From the second half of March to the end of June 2025, the supply of waste aluminum gradually loosened, the demand side of aluminum alloy ADC12 entered the traditional off-season, and the price center of ADC12 continued to move down. From late June to December 2025, the rising price of raw materials drove up the production cost of aluminum alloy ADC12. At the same time, it formed a linkage boosting effect with the strengthening price of electrolytic aluminum. Driven by multiple factors, the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fluctuated and rose.
From January to November 2025, China's cumulative output of bauxite reached 55.21 million tons, an increase of 4.21% compared with 2024. By region, the output of bauxite in Shanxi Province was 15.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; the output of bauxite in Henan Province was 4.23 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. In the first half of 2025, the environmental protection rectification in Shanxi and Henan achieved remarkable results, and the output of bauxite rebounded; in the second half of the year, affected by the rainy season, mining activities in the two provinces were restricted, and the output dropped accordingly.
At the policy level, in March 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 9 other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025 - 2027)", which clearly proposed to accelerate the increase in reserves and production of domestic bauxite resources, and set the goal of striving to achieve a 3% - 5% growth in domestic bauxite resources by 2027. In July of the same year, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued a notice on adjusting the transfer registration authority for some mineral species. In response to the illegal phenomenon in some cities and counties where "ceramic clay is mined in name but bauxite is actually mined", and to implement the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China", strengthen the protection of strategic mineral resources such as bauxite, promote the overall transfer of mineral resources, and improve the level of comprehensive development and utilization, the department decided to adjust the transfer registration authority for relevant mineral species.
Based on the current situation of China's bauxite output and policy orientation, it is expected that in 2026, China's bauxite output will continue to grow, but the increment space will be relatively limited.
From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of bauxite reached 186.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.44%. By country, China imported 138.13 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, accounting for 74% of the total imports in the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 38.01%; China imported 35.01 million tons of bauxite from Australia, accounting for 19%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%.
In 2025, despite being disrupted by local policy changes, Guinea's bauxite exports still contributed the largest increment to the global bauxite market. Data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, Guinea's bauxite output was 115.16 million tons, an increase of 22.56 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 24.36%; during the same period, Australia's bauxite output was 73.07 million tons, an increase of 13.88 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of only 1.94%.
At the policy and supply level, in May 2025, the Guinean authorities successively revoked the mining licenses of several mining enterprises. In particular, the entire Axis mining area was shut down, which once triggered market concerns about the tightening of bauxite supply. In December of the same year, Shunda Mining in the Axis mining area took the lead in resuming production, and the other two mining enterprises in the mining area were also expected to resume operations by the end of December 2025. The three mines have a combined annual production capacity of 40 million tons, and shipped a total of 22.08 million tons of bauxite before the production suspension in 2025. In addition, Nimba Mining Company, which was reorganized from the former Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), also resumed production in December, with an annual production capacity of over 14 million tons.
In terms of new production capacity, in 2026, the global bauxite production capacity increment is expected to remain concentrated in Guinea. Based on the calculation of the increment expectations of local enterprises that have been put into production, resumed production and expanded production, the global bauxite supply increment will be 40 million to 50 million tons in 2026.
Alumina inventories continue to rise
From January to November 2025, China's cumulative output of alumina reached 81.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%. In the first half of 2025, due to the drag of cost pressure, Chinese alumina enterprises saw a concentrated production reduction; with the subsequent decline in raw material costs and the recovery of corporate profits, the operating capacity of the alumina industry returned to a high level in the second half of the year. In terms of the overseas market, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) shows that from January to October 2025, the global alumina output was 119.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.86%; after deducting China's output of 74.46 million tons in the same period, the overseas alumina output was 45.44 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.03%.
In terms of new production capacity, in 2026, there will still be a large amount of new production capacity to be released in both domestic and foreign alumina markets. Among them, the domestic market is expected to see an increase of about 15 million tons of new production capacity, mainly concentrated in the provinces of Guangxi and Hebei; the overseas market is expected to have an increase of about 7.5 million tons of new production capacity, with India being the core growth region.
The import and export pattern continues to reshape. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of alumina reached 970,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.92%; cumulative exports of alumina were 2.3433 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 46.7%, with a cumulative net export volume of 1.373 million tons. Since 2024, benefiting from the continuous release of domestic production capacity and periodic unexpected production reductions overseas, China has gradually transformed from a net importer of alumina to a net exporter.
Costs are showing a downward trend. Since 2025, as the prices of raw materials such as bauxite, caustic soda and coal have moved down simultaneously, the production costs of alumina enterprises have dropped accordingly. By the end of December 2025, the theoretical loss margin of the alumina industry had narrowed to within 100 yuan per ton, which was significantly better than the profit situation during the period of concentrated production cuts in April-May. In terms of bauxite, which accounts for the highest proportion of costs, with the expectation of new capacity release, the supply of bauxite is likely to be loose in 2026, but it is necessary to be alert to potential disturbances caused by changes in relevant policies in Guinea. Regarding long-term contract prices, the first-quarter 2026 long-term contract quotation announced by a large mine in Guinea in December 2025 showed that on the basis of the latest flat oil price fluctuation, the CIF price after converting sea freight to dry tons was about 66.5 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars per dry ton compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
In terms of inventory, at the beginning of 2025, China's alumina inventory was generally at a relatively low level, approaching the 3.7 million tons mark. With the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure gradually increased, and inventory continued to rise. During the centralized maintenance period of the alumina industry from April to May 2025, the inventory once fell, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged.
The consumption potential in emerging fields remains significant.
From January to November 2025, China's cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 40.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%. Restricted by the "ceiling" of production capacity, the growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum output is limited. In terms of overseas markets, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) shows that from January to October 2025, the global output of electrolytic aluminum was 61.4 million tons, an increase of 1.18% compared with the same period in 2024; after deducting China's output of 36.5 million tons in the same period, the overseas output of electrolytic aluminum was 24.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of only 0.17%.
In terms of new production capacity, in 2026, the new domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to be 550,000 tons. Under the constraint of the "ceiling" on production capacity, the subsequent room for increase remains limited. From the perspective of the planning of under-construction and proposed projects, overseas electrolytic aluminum projects have great potential for subsequent growth, mainly concentrated in countries such as Indonesia and India. However, due to factors such as aging power systems and complex political environments, the construction period of overseas electrolytic aluminum projects is relatively long, and the pace of capacity release is slow. It is expected that the new overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be 1.3 million tons in 2026, and the new production capacity will remain above 1 million tons in 2027.
In terms of imports and exports, from January to November 2025, China's total primary aluminum imports reached 2.358 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 19.4%; total exports amounted to 260,000 tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 140%, and the cumulative net import volume was approximately 2.098 million tons.
In terms of profit performance, in 2025, benefiting from the dual positive factors of the decline in alumina prices and the rise in electrolytic aluminum prices, the profit margins of aluminum enterprises expanded significantly. By the end of December 2025, the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 5,800 yuan.
In the field of terminal consumption, from January to August 2025, the annualized number of new private housing starts in the U.S. market was 11.001 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%; during the same period, the annualized number of approved new private housing units was 11.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.38%. In terms of automobile consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles in the United States was 1.9096 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; from January to October 2025, the number of passenger car registrations in 15 European countries was 9.4725 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%.
Judging from the core data of the housing and automobile industries in Europe and the United States, the growth in overseas aluminum consumption was relatively weak in 2025. However, in 2026, supported by the loose monetary policies in Europe and the United States and the implementation of investment plans in related fields such as national defense and artificial intelligence, the demand for overseas aluminum consumption is worth looking forward to.
Looking at the main consumption areas of aluminum terminals, the automotive industry has performed brilliantly. From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 31.231 million units and 31.127 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 11.4% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles led the growth. From January to November 2025, the production and sales volume reached 14.907 million units and 14.78 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of over 31%. The investment growth rate in the power sector is differentiated. From January to October 2025, China's power grid projects completed an investment of 482.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; power source projects completed an investment of 721.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In terms of exports, affected significantly by tariff policies, from January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of aluminum products reached 5.07 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.08%.
In terms of emerging fields, the growth points of market demand are gradually focusing on emerging tracks such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robots. At the same time, against the background of the high copper-aluminum price ratio, the substitution potential of "replacing copper with aluminum" in various industries is gradually being released.
In the aluminum alloy market, from January to November 2025, the cumulative output of waste and old aluminum materials in China was 7.8 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.78%. In terms of imports, from January to November 2025, the total import volume of waste aluminum in China was 1.82 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10.98%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of recycled cast aluminum alloys in China was 6.7 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.41%. Under the conditions of tight raw material supply and cost pressure, the supply increment of recycled cast aluminum alloys was limited. In terms of inventory, as of December 26, 2025, the social inventory of recycled cast aluminum alloys (including ADC12 and others) was 71,000 tons, an increase of 59,800 tons compared with the same period in 2024, and the in-plant inventory of recycled cast aluminum alloys (including ADC12 and others) was 58,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons compared with the same period in 2024.
Outlook and Risk Tips
At the macro level, it is expected that the global economy will be dominated by the "easy monetary and easy fiscal" policies. Among them, the interest rate cut cycle in Europe is approaching an end, and its fiscal policy is expected to shift towards expansion. From the perspective of fundamentals, the supply side is constrained by the "ceiling" of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the release pace of overseas supply increments is also relatively slow. On the consumption side, although the growth rate in traditional fields has slowed down and exports are suppressed by U.S. tariff policies, there are still clear expectations of increments in emerging fields. In particular, the demand growth in tracks such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robots will form a strong support. Meanwhile, against the background of the high operation of the copper-aluminum price ratio, the trend of "replacing copper with aluminum" will continue to advance. Overall, against the backdrop of global loose policies underpinning the economy and a tight balance between market supply and demand, aluminum prices will still have upward potential in 2026.
In terms of the alumina market, the supply of bauxite, the raw material, is expected to remain loose in the future, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of possible policy changes in Guinea. There is still pressure on the supply side, with large-scale new production capacity. At the same time, under the guidance of the domestic industry's "anti-involution" trend, it is necessary to focus on the trends of relevant policy adjustments. However, the cost side provides certain support for prices, and the downside space for alumina prices is relatively limited. Overall, if there are no major disturbances at the policy level, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market will be difficult to change in 2026, and prices are likely to remain low.
