According to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global alumina production reached 144.98 million tons in 2025, marking a 5.1% increase from 137.88 million tons in 2024. This growth is primarily driven by improved operational efficiency at refineries in major producing regions, the commissioning of new capacity, and sustained market demand.
Regionally, China—the world's largest alumina producer—will see output rise 8.3% year-on-year to 88.3 million tons in 2025, further cementing its dominant position in the global market. Production in Africa and Asia (excluding China) grew by 4.8% to 14.53 million tons, supported by stable refinery operations in India and the Middle East. In contrast, output in Oceania remained largely unchanged, while South America saw a slight decline of 0.4%. Europe (including Russia) and North America experienced decreases of 2.9% and 6.4%, respectively, primarily due to energy constraints and operational challenges.
Global alumina production in 2025 exhibited a fluctuating recovery pattern. Production declined slightly month-on-month in January due to output drops in South America and Europe, but rebounded strongly in March with nearly 10% month-on-month growth. A roughly 3% month-on-month decline occurred in June, mid-year, but production quickly recovered in July, reaching its highest monthly level in six months. During this period, China's operational capacity utilization rose to 81.6%. Concurrently, overseas expansion projects such as PT Bintan Alumina's Phase III in Indonesia and Vedanta's Lanjigarh refinery supported global output growth. Production fluctuated between August and November but remained at elevated levels overall. October metallurgical-grade alumina output reached 37 million tons, while chemical-grade alumina production stood at 2.39 million tons. Cumulative consumption from January to September totaled 109.7 million tons, with full-year demand projected at 142 million tons—broadly matching forecast production.
The global alumina market in 2025 will be shaped by a combination of structural and cyclical factors. China accounted for 60-62% of global output, with capacity expansion and robust operational performance in Asia underpinning overall growth. Although monthly production fluctuated due to maintenance cycles, energy constraints, and bauxite supply variations, elevated alumina prices, favorable arbitrage opportunities, and sustained long-term demand from the aluminum sector encouraged refineries to maintain high operating rates. Despite temporary disruptions in certain months, the industry demonstrated strong resilience, achieving steady annual growth.
Looking ahead to 2026, global alumina production is projected to maintain its growth trajectory. Major producers like Alcoa anticipate alumina output between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons and aluminum production between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, driven by smelter restarts and refinery operational improvements. While initial costs from maintenance and restarts may impact the start of the year, robust alumina prices and sustained industry demand are expected to provide market stability.
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