Price trend

In January, the domestic market price of mild steel plates showed significant fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, the price stabilized at 3,192 RMB/ton, followed by a rapid decline in the first ten days, falling to a low of around 3,162 RMB/ton, a drop of nearly 1%. Driven by temporary positive factors, the price quickly rose to a monthly high of 3,204 RMB/ton around January 9th, an increase of 1.3%. However, the support at this high level was insufficient, and the price subsequently fell back and entered a period of range-bound fluctuation. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of general mild steel plates (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,192 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1st) and 3,202 RMB/ton at the end of the month (January 30th), an increase of 0.31% compared to the beginning of the month.

Influencing factors

1. Cost situation: Steel billet prices were fluctuating weakly and trending downwards

As of January 30th, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon steel billets in the Tangshan area was 2,960 RMB/ton, an increase of 10 RMB/ton compared to the same period last month. At the beginning of the month, steel billet prices remained relatively stable, but as finished steel prices weakened in the first ten days, the willingness to purchase steel billets decreased, and prices declined accordingly. After the middle of the month, influenced by factors such as steel mill maintenance and a rebound in iron ore prices, steel billet prices experienced a surge, providing cost support for mild steel plate prices. Towards the end of the month, as demand for finished steel weakened again, steel billet prices came under pressure and fell, and the cost support weakened.

2. Demand situation: Fluctuating before the holiday, overall weaker

In the first ten days of the month, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rates of downstream manufacturing and construction machinery industries declined, and end-user purchasing intentions were weak, resulting in a sluggish market. In the middle of the month, some downstream enterprises had a temporary need to replenish inventory to meet production deadlines, coupled with increased winter stocking sentiment among traders, leading to a brief surge in market transactions and driving prices higher. Towards the end of the month, as the Spring Festival holiday approached, downstream construction sites gradually ceased operations and manufacturing companies went on holiday, resulting in a rapid contraction of market demand and a subsequent decline in prices.

3. Inventory situation: Steel mill inventories remained relatively stable, while social inventories increased slightly

Throughout the month, overall inventory showed a slight increase, exhibiting a structural characteristic of "relatively stable steel mill inventories and a slight accumulation of social inventories," while also displaying an industry characteristic of "divergence between plate and construction material inventories." As of the week ending January 19th, the total inventory of mild steel plates in 14 warehouses across 9 cities nationwide was 707,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,200 tons compared to the end of December, representing a 0.88% increase. By the end of January, the total inventory of the five major steel products nationwide reached 12.7851 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 214,300 tons. The mild steel plate inventories showed a slight accumulation, with overall inventory levels remaining at a moderate level.

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises reached 16.13 million tons, an increase of 1.09 million tons from the previous ten-day period, representing a 7.3% increase; an increase of 1.99 million tons from the beginning of the year, a 14.1% increase; and an increase of 3.2 million tons compared to the same period last year, a 24.7% increase. The proportion of mild steel plate inventory remained stable, indicating a moderate increase in inventory pressure. In terms of inventory structure, steel mill inventories remained relatively stable overall, without significant accumulation, mainly due to steel mills rationally adjusting their production pace, prioritizing the production of high-end products to match continuous downstream orders; social inventories showed a slight accumulation, primarily due to a slowdown in demand absorption, coupled with weak pre-holiday stocking intentions from traders.  Social inventory replenishment was limited, and inventory pressure was mainly concentrated in core distribution areas.

Market Outlook for mild steel plates in February

In February 2026, the domestic mild steel plate market will be entirely dominated by the Spring Festival holiday (February 16th is the Spring Festival). The market operation will be divided into two stages: "market closure before the holiday and recovery after the holiday," showing an overall trend of "weak stability before the holiday and fluctuating recovery after the holiday." The price level is expected to rise slightly, but the increase will be limited. The core operating logic revolves around "holiday closure, inventory accumulation, and restocking after the holiday."

1. Pre-holiday period (February 1st - February 15th): The market will maintain weak and stable operation, with prices remaining largely unchanged. On the one hand, Tangshan's steel billet price-locking policy during the Spring Festival continues to exert its influence, providing solid cost support and preventing a decline in mild steel plate prices; on the other hand, downstream enterprises have fully entered a holiday shutdown state, demand has completely stagnated, and market transactions show a "prices without transactions" characteristic. Most traders have already gone on holiday, and their quotations remain basically stable, with no significant incentive to offer discounts, making price fluctuations unlikely.

2. Post-holiday period (February 16th - February 28th): Prices are expected to fluctuate and gradually recover. Firstly, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work and production after the holiday, and demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors will gradually be released.  In particular, the strong desire to catch up on infrastructure projects after the holiday will drive a rebound in demand for mild steel plates, supporting price increases; secondly, raw material steel billet prices are expected to continue their upward trend. With the recovery of downstream demand for billets after the holiday, steel billet prices may rise slightly, further strengthening the cost support for mild steel plates; thirdly, positive macroeconomic factors continue to emerge, with the government continuously introducing policies to stabilize growth, including support for real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing. The market has strong expectations for the implementation of these policies, which will improve market confidence and drive price recovery; fourthly, the inventory accumulation before the holiday was moderate, and the release of demand after the holiday will lead to a gradual reduction in inventory, weakening the downward pressure on prices.

The main negative factors are: the slow pace of resuming work and production after the holiday, the delayed release of demand, making it difficult to quickly generate substantial upward momentum; some traders are eager to sell goods and recover funds after the holiday, which may lead to slight price concessions and limit price increases; and the volatile trend in futures markets continues, still having a certain impact on the spot market sentiment. Overall, in February, the price of mild steel plates will show a general upward trend with limited gains, presenting a pattern of "stable before the holiday and warming up after the holiday."

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