Price trend:

The domestic mild steel plate market generally showed a volatile and weaker trend, with prices slightly declining. The market lacked clear upward momentum, and traders focused on destocking.  Negotiation space for transactions was common. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of general-purpose mild steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,212 RMB/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton compared to the Friday of the previous week.

Influencing factors

Steel billet market: Last week, domestic steel billet prices remained weak. The price of ordinary billets in Tangshan, including tax, was 2,950 RMB/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous week. Downstream buyers purchased on an as-needed basis, and some market traders secretly lowered actual transaction prices to boost sales, but overall transactions were unsatisfactory.

On the demand side, the demand for mild steel plates continued the weak trend of the year-end off-season last week. Downstream industries generally showed low purchasing willingness, and market transactions were mainly driven by essential end-user demand, with speculative demand remaining absent. Looking at downstream industries, the infrastructure sector was affected by low temperatures and the completion of projects at the end of the year. Construction project commencement rates remained low in northern regions, and although some projects were being completed in southern regions, new orders decreased significantly. Manufacturing industries such as steel structures and construction machinery also faced insufficient orders, with companies mainly focusing on digesting existing inventory, slowing down their purchasing pace, and experiencing a scarcity of bulk purchase orders.

Regarding inventory, last week's mild steel plate inventory showed a structural characteristic of "slightly decreasing social inventory, increasing steel mill inventory, and an overall inventory shift from decrease to increase," indicating increased inventory pressure compared to the previous week. In terms of social inventory, as of December 24th, the national social inventory of mild steel plates was 1.1706 million tons, a decrease of 0.009 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.08%, with the rate of inventory reduction significantly slowing down by 1.68 percentage points compared to the previous week. Regarding steel mill inventory, there was a significant increase last week. As of December 24th, the in-plant inventory of mild steel plates was 1.1346 million tons, an increase of 0.0333 million tons from the week before last, an increase of 3.02%, ending the previous downward trend; this represents a 1.78% increase compared to the previous month and an 11.55% increase compared to the same period last year.

Market Outlook

The domestic mild steel plate market is expected to continue a stable-to-weaker trend next week, with prices slightly declining but with limited downward movement. Three main negative factors are at play: firstly, weak demand persists at the end of the year, and with the Spring Festival approaching, traders and end-users are gradually closing for the holidays, further reducing effective demand and leading to continued sluggish transactions; secondly, inventory pressure is becoming apparent, and traders will continue their strategy of selling off inventory to recover funds, putting pressure on spot prices; and thirdly, the weak supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, with overall ample supply of mild steel plates, making it difficult to form supply-side support. Positive factors include: price increases by leading steel companies providing emotional support, with Shougang raising its base price for mild steel plates in January 2026, which is expected to encourage some steel mills to follow suit and limit the decline; and rising raw material prices, strengthening steel mills' willingness to maintain cost support. Overall, mild steel plate prices are unlikely to see substantial increases next week and will most likely maintain a stable-to-weaker fluctuating trend.

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