Price trend
The domestic mild steel plate market generally showed a narrow range of fluctuations and a stable trend, with prices fluctuating by around 10 RMB/ton. The market focus has gradually shifted from "supply-demand imbalance" to the balance between "cost support and off-season demand." Traders' quotations were mostly stable, and the room for price negotiation narrowed. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of general mild steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,202 RMB/ton on January 9th, an increase of 10 RMB/ton compared to before the holiday, a rise of 0.31%.
Influencing factors
Steel Billet Market: Last week, domestic steel billet prices rose. The tax-inclusive price of ordinary billets in Tangshan was reported at 2,980 RMB/ton, an increase of 30 RMB/ton compared to before the holiday. The reasons for the increase are: firstly, the demand for pre-holiday stocking was released in stages, and some downstream billet-consuming enterprises, such as those producing mild steel plates and sections, made small inventory replenishments to ensure production continuity before the Spring Festival, leading to a moderate increase in billet procurement demand; secondly, cost pressures eased due to stable prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal and coke, providing a basis for the price increase. It is worth noting that this increase in steel billet prices is a temporary rebound before the holiday, and the increase is relatively limited due to the overall weak demand during the off-season before the Spring Festival.
On the demand side, the demand for mild steel plates continued the weak trend observed before the Spring Festival, with overall demand remaining sluggish. However, after the New Year holiday, transactions improved slightly compared to the end of the year. Market transactions were entirely dependent on end-user demand, with speculative demand remaining absent. Looking at downstream industries, the infrastructure sector was affected by low temperatures in the north and rainy weather in the south, resulting in low overall operating rates. Outdoor construction in northern regions was essentially halted, with only a small number of indoor projects progressing. In southern regions, some infrastructure projects had a small amount of urgent replenishment to meet pre-Spring Festival deadlines, but the increase in new orders was limited. In the manufacturing sector, demand from industries such as steel structures, construction machinery, and pressure vessels remained relatively stable. The shipbuilding sector, supported by orders from some companies, had a continuous demand for mild steel plates. For example, Xinyu Steel Group received over 1.2 million tons of domestic and international ship plate orders from January to November, supporting some high-end mild steel plate demand. However, most manufacturing companies were still primarily focused on digesting existing inventory, slowing down their purchasing pace, and large-volume purchase orders were scarce.
Regarding inventory, the inventory of mild steel plates shows a structural characteristic of "slight accumulation in social inventory and relatively controllable inventory at steel mills." Overall inventory pressure has increased slightly, but it remains within a manageable range.
Regarding social inventories, as of January 5th, the total inventory of mild steel plates in 14 warehouses across 9 cities nationwide was 717,000 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared to the end of December, representing a 0.59% increase. This was mainly due to the fact that the rate of demand consumption did not keep pace with the rate of resource replenishment, leading to a temporary accumulation of social inventories.
Regarding steel mill inventories, the overall situation remained relatively stable, without any significant accumulation. As of January 9th, nationwide inventories of medium and thick steel plates showed only moderate fluctuations. Some steel mills, supported by orders for high-end products such as shipbuilding plates, maintained a steady pace of shipments, resulting in manageable inventory pressure at the mills. The core reasons for the changes in inventory structure are, on the one hand, that although demand has improved, it remains weak, leading to a slower rate of social inventory depletion; on the other hand, steel mills maintained a relatively stable production pace, with continuous resource replenishment. This, coupled with insufficient willingness among traders to build up winter stocks and low enthusiasm for stockpiling, led to a slight accumulation of social inventory. Furthermore, the impact of the resumption of the steel export licensing system from January 1, 2026, has led to adjustments in the order pace of some mild steel plate export companies, which also indirectly affected domestic inventories.
Analysis and prediction
The domestic mild steel plate market is expected to continue its stable and fluctuating trend next week, with prices remaining largely stable and downward pressure further easing. Negative factors include the continued seasonal slowdown before the Spring Festival and a slight accumulation of social inventory. Positive factors include stronger cost support, as expectations for steel mills' winter stockpiling increase, leading to a potential stabilization and rebound in the prices of raw materials such as coking coal and coke; the shortage of certain specifications in some regions is unlikely to be resolved in the short term; and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in demand, as government subsidies are being released in many areas, which is expected to boost overall economic sentiment; at the same time, sustained orders in high-end sectors such as shipbuilding will ensure stable demand for some mild steel plates. Overall, the domestic mild steel plate market will continue to see a weak supply and demand balance, but with a balance of positive and negative factors, prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly and will most likely remain stable and volatile.
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