Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system: In January 2026, the domestic market price of 1# antimony ingot fluctuated upwards, experiencing an initial decline followed by a rise. The average price on January 1st was 162,000 RMB/ton, and the average price on January 28th was 163,000 RMB/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 0.62%.

Market analysis

Supply side: Support from mining sources was strengthening, but industry production was limited

The tight supply of antimony ore continued, providing underlying support for antimony ingot prices. Customs data shows that China's imports of antimony ore and concentrates reached 4775.96 tons in December 2025, a further increase from 3637.04 tons in November, returning above the 4000-ton mark. However, the total annual import volume remained insufficient, indicating an overall tight supply of domestic ore resources.

The scarcity of global antimony resources was becoming increasingly evident, with a clear trend of rigid supply contraction. In China's main producing regions of Hunan and Guangxi, core mines had been in operation for many years, resulting in continuously declining ore grades. Processing costs increased by over 50% compared to five years ago, directly driving up raw material procurement costs. Furthermore, antimony was included in the list of protected scarce minerals, and environmental regulations led to the closure of some outdated production facilities, limiting industry operating rates and further tightening supply. Overseas, major producers such as Russia and Bolivia were experiencing capacity contractions, and the commissioning of new capacity was slow, leading to a continuously expanding global antimony supply gap. Import channels were proving insufficient to effectively alleviate the tight domestic supply situation.

Demand side: Emerging sectors were driving growth, while traditional demand increased steadily

In the traditional downstream applications of antimony, flame retardant materials account for approximately 55%, and glass accounts for approximately 15%. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China's photovoltaic industry, the main increase in antimony demand in the future will come from the photovoltaic sector.

Antimony Oxide: Influenced by weak demand, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment, the domestic antimony oxide market in January showed a volatile downward trend, with prices stabilizing at the bottom. Exports were hampered by the overseas Christmas holidays, resulting in lower-than-expected export growth this month and insufficient support for domestic demand. Although the supply side was supported by concentrate costs, traders actively lowered prices to recover funds as the year-end approached, exacerbating pressure on the spot market. Towards the end of the month, due to factors such as factory shutdowns, traders withholding sales, and reduced market liquidity, the downward price movement narrowed, the market stabilized, and entered a consolidation phase.

Photovoltaics: Demand shows structural differentiation, with core consumption areas providing strong support but experiencing short-term disruptions. Photovoltaic glass, a key consumption area for antimony ingots, is operating steadily overall, with stable daily melting volume and supply-demand dynamics, and a slight decrease in inventory. On the supply side, there are no new production line changes, and production remains stable. Demand has slightly improved due to expectations of adjustments in export policies, leading to reduced inventory for some companies, but the overall destocking process is hindered. This is mainly due to adverse weather conditions affecting logistics and transportation in some parts of China, and a slower-than-expected pace of export orders from downstream industries, resulting in photovoltaic glass consumption not meeting expectations. In the long term, demand from emerging fields such as sodium-ion batteries and AI servers continues to grow, injecting new momentum into antimony ingot demand; in traditional fields, flame-retardant materials are benefiting from steadily increasing demand due to upgraded global fire safety standards, coupled with improved market sentiment for antimony oxide driving rigid demand for antimony ingots, and the gradual recovery of overseas demand and increased global strategic reserve demand, all of which constitute the core support for antimony ingot demand.

Market Outlook:

In January, the antimony ingot market experienced volatile upward movement amidst supply and demand dynamics. Supply was constrained by the scarcity of antimony ore resources and low industry operating rates, coupled with continuous strengthening of policy controls. On the demand side, the combined strength of emerging sectors and steady growth in traditional sectors provided strong support for the market. In the short term, with the approaching peak season for pre-holiday stocking before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are likely to increase their inventory to lock in costs. Coupled with the current low market inventory and the reluctance of holders to sell at lower prices, the price of antimony ingots is expected to receive further support and is likely to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations.

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