Due to the poor production profits of livestock and poultry breeding as well as feed enterprises in 2025, the production capacity of some livestock and poultry is expected to decline in 2026, which may affect the domestic compound feed output and the amount of corn used for feed.
In 2025, domestic livestock and poultry production capacity increased, with the output of compound feed rising by nearly 8% year-on-year. The proportion of corn used increased by 2.4 percentage points, and the consumption of corn grew by more than 15% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to 2026, due to reduced or even negative profits in livestock and poultry breeding, Zhuochuang Information predicts that the production capacity of live pigs and the inventory of laying hens in production will both decrease to varying degrees, while the production capacity of white-feathered broilers will increase. Moreover, as corn prices remain high, the growth in breeding profits will be limited, and there may be an expectation of a reduction in the amount of corn used for feed, which may weaken the supporting effect on corn prices.
In 2025, both the domestic output of compound feed and the consumption of corn increased
The output of domestic compound feed maintained a growth momentum in 2025. Statistics from the China Feed Industry Association show that the domestic compound feed output from April to November 2025 was 213.52 million tons, an increase of 7.98% compared with the same period of the previous year.
In 2025, the output of compound feed showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, which was mainly related to changes in livestock and poultry production capacity and the seasonal feed intake of live livestock and poultry; the usage of corn, on the other hand, showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, which was closely linked to changes in corn supply and prices.
In terms of substitutes, because wheat has certain advantages over corn in terms of protein content, when the price of wheat is 100-150 yuan per ton higher than that of corn, feed wheat has a certain substitution effect on feed corn. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the average price difference between wheat and corn in North China in 2025 was 157 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 155 yuan per ton, with a decline of about 50%, indicating an increase in substitution advantages.
From the perspective of demand, the increase in the output of compound feed and the demand for feed corn in 2025 is mainly due to the relatively high livestock and poultry production capacity in China. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information, the overall stock of major domestic livestock and poultry showed an increasing trend in 2025, reaching 2.753 billion heads (only) in December of that year, an increase of 243 million heads (only) compared with January of the same year, a growth rate of 9.70%. Moreover, the stock of laying hens and white-feathered broilers reached the highest level in recent years, which to a certain extent boosted the consumption of compound feed.
In terms of the number of animals slaughtered, the total number of domestic live pigs and white-feathered broilers slaughtered in 2025 showed an overall growth trend. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information, the total number of live pigs and white-feathered broilers slaughtered in 2025 reached 10 billion heads (birds), an increase of nearly 700 million heads (birds) year-on-year, with a growth rate of 7.42%. The main reason is that the production capacity is relatively high, product prices are at a low level in recent years, breeding profits have shrunk or even turned into losses, and breeders are actively slaughtering their animals.
It is expected that the domestic consumption of feed corn may decrease in 2026.
Due to the poor production profits of livestock and poultry breeding as well as feed enterprises in 2025, the production capacity of some livestock and poultry is showing a downward trend in 2026, which may affect the domestic output of compound feed and the consumption of corn for feed.
First, against the backdrop of losses in pig breeding profits, a slow decline in end-demand, and policy guidance, breeding enterprises may passively reduce production capacity and optimize the structure of excess sows due to the imbalance between supply and demand. It is expected that in 2026, the number of breeding sows and live pig inventories in China will both decrease by about 2% year-on-year, while the number of live pig slaughter will increase slightly.
Second, the average theoretical breeding profit per layer in the layer industry in 2025 was less than 1 yuan, which is far lower than the psychological expectation of 25-30 yuan per layer among industry players. In 2026, laying hens will enter a phase of capacity reduction. It is estimated that the stock of laying hens in production in China will drop to 1.234 billion by the end of 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 120 million, with a decline rate of 8.73%.
Third, the white-feathered broiler industry will benefit from the expansion of production capacity by large enterprises. It is expected that the domestic output of white-feathered broilers will increase to 9.6 billion to 9.7 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 360 million, with a growth rate of 3.83%. Due to the significant increase in the output of white-feathered broilers, it may drive up the domestic production of compound feed in 2026. However, as the cost of corn, a raw material, remains high, and policy grain continues to be released to supplement market supply and the supply of substitutes increases, it is expected that the proportion of corn in compound feed production may decline in 2026, and the domestic consumption of corn for feed is expected to decrease, which may weaken the supporting effect on corn prices.
