Antimony ingot market review for 2025

In 2025, the antimony ingot market exhibited characteristics of "surging to a peak followed by a decline and high-level fluctuations," driven by the confluence of three factors: rigid supply, expanding demand, and policy regulations. Globally, the supply-demand gap for antimony widened to 34,000-39,000 tons in 2025, reaching a five-year high. The price difference between domestic and international markets exceeded 80%, with domestic antimony ingot prices significantly higher than international prices, fully highlighting its strategic resource status.

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system: In 2025, the domestic market for 1# antimony ingots experienced a sharp initial surge followed by a volatile decline, resulting in an overall upward trend throughout the year. The average price on January 1st was 140,250 RMB/ton, and the average price on December 30th was 162,000 RMB/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 15.51%.

Rapid price surge in January-March: The average price on January 1st was 140,250 RMB/ton, and it surged to approximately 230,000 RMB/ton in mid-March (a rise of over 64%). During the first quarter, domestic antimony mining quotas were tightened, and imports declined simultaneously. This led to a tightening of domestic antimony ingot supply, resulting in strong positive factors on the supply side. At the same time, downstream photovoltaic industries released their stockpiling demand.  Supported by these favorable supply and demand factors, the price of antimony ingots rose rapidly.

April-December saw a volatile decline: After March, prices gradually fell, ending the year at 162,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of approximately 30%. The main reasons were the temporary destocking of photovoltaic glass and weak demand for antimony oxide. Lacking demand support, the price of antimony ingots lacked upward momentum, market sentiment cooled, and prices returned to reflect supply and demand fundamentals.

According to data from SunSirs, the antimony ingot market has generally been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with six months of increases and six months of decreases (a 6.76% drop in December). The largest increase was 44.37% in March, and the largest decrease was 13.46% in June.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Antimony Ingot Market in 2026:

Supply Side: Supply remained tight due to multiple constraints

Production: Affected by environmental protection-related production restrictions and depletion of mining resources, China's antimony ingot production from January to November 2025 was approximately 60,000 tons, a decrease of about 16% compared to the same period last year. The main producing regions, Hunan and Guangxi, accounted for over 70% of the total production, with new capacity additions of less than 5,000 tons. Domestic antimony mining quotas were reduced by 15% compared to 2024, with 40% of small mines being shut down due to environmental regulations, reducing the supply elasticity in the main producing regions. In 2026, domestic antimony mining quotas are expected to continue the tightening trend of 2025, coupled with further increases in environmental compliance costs, making it difficult for small mines to resume production, and limiting capacity release in the main producing regions (Hunan and Guangxi). Domestic antimony ingot production in 2026 is expected to remain roughly the same as in 2025, making it difficult to compensate for the supply gap through domestic capacity expansion.

Imports: According to customs statistics, China's imports of antimony ore and concentrates totaled 32,655.5 tons from January to November 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. Imports peaked at 4,543 tons in January 2025 and reached a low of 1,483 tons in March 2025. Overall import volume was lower than the same period last year, and the domestic supply of antimony ore remains tight. The significant year-on-year contraction in concentrate imports in 2025 directly reinforced supply constraints in the domestic antimony ingot market, becoming one of the core factors driving price increases at the beginning of the year and supporting a higher price level throughout the year. However, fluctuations in the import structure also exacerbated market volatility. Currently, global antimony ore resources are scarce and grades are continuously declining.  Production capacity in China's main import countries, such as Russia and Myanmar, is limited. Russia, as a core source of imports for China, faces some uncertainty regarding supply stability, and imports from traditional suppliers such as Myanmar and Thailand are expected to remain low. It is anticipated that antimony concentrate imports will not increase significantly in 2026, making it difficult to alleviate the domestic raw material shortage.

Demand side: Conventional demand remained stable, while the solar power sector showed outstanding performance

In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for approximately 47%, lead-acid batteries for about 13%, and polyester catalysts for about 10%, while emerging demands account for approximately 31%. Currently, emerging demands have become the core driving force for the growth of antimony demand, with photovoltaic glass being the absolute main contributor. Antimony, as an indispensable clarifying agent (sodium antimonate) in the production of photovoltaic glass, is irreplaceable. In the future, the main increase in antimony metal demand will come from the photovoltaic sector.

Antimony Oxide:  Regarding domestic demand, the downstream manufacturing industries such as plastics and rubber are recovering, leading to increased demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant sector.  However, domestic demand for antimony oxide is not expected to show significant year-on-year growth by 2026, remaining relatively stable overall. In terms of exports: with the gradual recovery of overseas markets and the expected marginal adjustments to domestic export control policies, antimony oxide exports are expected to rebound, indirectly boosting demand for antimony ingots.

Photovoltaics: With the rapid growth of the domestic photovoltaic industry, the market is optimistic about the future demand for antimony in the photovoltaic sector. Currently, the global growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity exceeds 30%, the penetration rate of double-glass modules is above 60%, and the production capacity of photovoltaic glass is accelerating. The proportion of antimony used in the photovoltaic field will rise to over 25%, and this proportion is expected to increase further. In the future, the photovoltaic sector is likely to become the largest source of demand for antimony.

Antimony ingot market forecast for 2026:

In 2025, the domestic price of 1# antimony ingot operated in a historically high range, with an average annual price of 180,000-190,000 RMB/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90%.  The price peaked at 240,000-265,000 RMB/ton around April, before falling to 160,000-170,000 RMB/ton at the end of the year due to a temporary weakening of demand, still significantly higher than historical prices.

SunSirs’ analysts predict that the antimony ingot market will experience short-term volatile upward trends and a long-term upward shift in its central price level in 2026. The core drivers of this increase are the rigid contraction of supply and the continuous expansion of emerging demand. The supply-demand gap will further widen, making price increases more likely than decreases. On the supply side, domestic mining quotas will continue to be tightened, and capacity release in the main producing areas of Hunan and Guangxi will be limited; the total import volume of antimony concentrate will be difficult to increase, making it difficult to alleviate the raw material shortage in the short term. On the demand side, photovoltaic glass companies will see a concentrated release of their stockpiling demand, and the recovery of antimony oxide exports will drive antimony ingot procurement, strengthening downstream inventory replenishment intentions.

In the short term: From January to March, approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, the downstream market's demand for inventory replenishment will drive an upward trend. From April to June, driven by the peak season demand for solar power, market prices will maintain a high level of volatility.

In the long term: global antimony resource grades are declining, and production capacity growth is weak; emerging demands from photovoltaic and semiconductor industries continue to expand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap year by year.  The scarcity and strategic importance of antimony will drive prices into a long-term upward trend, especially as the demand for high-purity antimony increases. The antimony ingot market is expected to remain stronger.

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