Price trend

In October, the price of mild steel plates continued its downward trend with fluctuations, lacking support from the peak season. The weak price movement was mainly driven by three factors: first, the transmission of inventory pressure under a supply-demand imbalance; second, insufficient support from raw material costs; and third, the negative impact of US tariffs on market confidence. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the price of ordinary mild steel plates (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,362 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (October 1st) and 3312 RMB/ton at the end of the month (October 31st), a decrease of 1.49% compared to the beginning of the month.

Influencing factors

Cost situation: Iron ore prices fluctuated and weakened, while billet prices rose slightly

As of October 30th, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was RMB 805/ton, a decrease of RMB 26/ton (3.33%) compared to September. As of October 27th, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.884 million tons this week, a decrease of 870,000 tons month-on-month. Shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 29.259 million tons, an increase of 1.008 million tons month-on-month; Australian shipments totaled 19.843 million tons, a decrease of 437,000 tons month-on-month; of which, shipments from Australia to China totaled 16.665 million tons, a decrease of 1.049 million tons month-on-month; and Brazilian shipments totaled 9.415 million tons, an increase of 1.054 million tons month-on-month. Global iron ore shipments continued to decline since October.

As of October 31, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon square billets in Tangshan was 3,050 RMB/ton, an increase of 20 RMB/ton compared to the same period last month. Lower raw material prices upstream reduced billet costs, while weak downstream demand for finished steel products translated into lower mild steel plate costs.

Demand situation: Peak season was not strong, and there was obvious structural differentiation

In October, demand for mild steel plates showed a divergent trend: "high-end demand was resilient, while traditional demand was weak," with overall demand falling far short of expectations. Apparent consumption of mild steel plates in September had already dropped to 9.2 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons from August. Demand further contracted in October due to the shutdowns during the National Day holiday. The total transaction volume of 10 sample enterprises in Handan from September to October was only 277,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21,300 tons, directly reflecting weak end-user procurement.

Inventory situation: Involuntary inventory accumulation, pressure hit a new high for the same period

In October, the mild steel plate market entered a typical "passive inventory accumulation" cycle, with inventory levels climbing to a high for the same period in recent years. As of October 23, the social inventory of mild steel plate products in key markets nationwide reached 2.5532 million tons, an increase of 249,400 tons month-on-month and 231,000 tons year-on-year. The core reason for the high inventory is the mismatch between supply and demand: as of October 29, 2025, the weekly output of key mild steel plate steel mills nationwide was 1.5357 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons from 1.495 million tons on October 22; while on the demand side, the absorption capacity continued to weaken due to seasonal shutdowns and insufficient confidence, and the normal production of steel mills during the National Day holiday further exacerbated the inventory pressure.

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, as of mid-October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.58 million tons, an increase of 700,000 tons (4.4%) compared to the previous ten-day period; an increase of 4.21 million tons (34.0%) compared to the beginning of the year; an increase of 1.29 million tons (8.4%) compared to the same ten-day period of the previous month; an increase of 1.15 million tons (7.5%) compared to the same ten-day period of the previous year; and an increase of 70,000 tons (0.4%) compared to the same ten-day period of the year before last.

Import and export situation: Exports will be under pressure in the short term, and negative policy factors were becoming more prominent

October saw a continuation of the September trend in mild steel plate imports and exports, but tightening foreign trade policies brought significant uncertainty. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month, representing a month-on-month increase of 10.0%; cumulative steel exports from January to September reached 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month, representing a month-on-month increase of 9.6%; cumulative steel imports from January to September reached 4.532 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%. On October 10th, the United States announced that it would impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1st, directly triggering market concerns about a reduction in mild steel plate exports.

November Market Outlook for mild steel plates

Price trend: The probability of a bottoming out and rebound is increasing, but the upside potential is limited

It is expected that the price of mild steel plates will show a trend of "bottoming out and rebounding before stabilizing" in November, with the national average price likely to fluctuate between 3,300-3,400 RMB/ton. There are three main supporting factors: First, the squeeze on steel mill profits will force production cuts, and the increased number of companies planning maintenance in November is expected to alleviate supply pressure; second, the construction machinery industry is entering its traditional peak season, coupled with the continued release of shipbuilding orders, which may lead to a temporary increase in demand; and third, after the concentrated accumulation of inventory in October, the pressure on traders to ship goods has eased, and the price decline has slowed.

Supply and demand dynamics: The supply-demand gap is narrowing, and structural differentiation continues

On the supply side: The high production situation is expected to improve marginally, with the average daily output of mild steel plates projected to fall below 300,000 tons in November. Some steel mills have already planned maintenance shutdowns due to shrinking profits, and coupled with the implementation of price controls to combat internal competition, supply pressure will ease compared to October.

On the demand side: Demand for high-end manufacturing remains resilient, with steel for construction machinery expected to see a seasonal rebound, while steel for shipbuilding will remain stable as orders are fulfilled; however, as northern China enters winter, construction gradually comes to a standstill, further weakening traditional demand. Although the supply-demand gap has narrowed, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the trend.

Inventory and Policy Risk Warning

Regarding inventory, if the supply-demand gap narrows as expected, social inventory may see a slight decrease in November, but the decline is expected to be limited, and national inventory will remain at a high level of over 2.4 million tons. At the policy level, two key points need attention: first, the pace of implementation of domestic pro-growth policies, and the availability of local government debt relief funds will affect infrastructure steel demand; second, the actual impact of the US tariff policy, requiring monitoring of export order changes.

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