Currently, the global political and economic landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, and a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is advancing in depth. As the lifeblood of the national economy, energy and mineral resources are increasingly highlighting their strategic importance. At the recently held 4th High-end Forum on Strategic Development of Natural Resources, numerous experts and scholars from institutions including the Ministry of Natural Resources, the China Geological Survey, and China University of Geosciences conducted an in-depth analysis of China's energy and mineral resource supply-and-demand situation, the challenges it faces, and potential pathways for breaking the current impasse.

Experts attending the meeting generally agreed that, although China has achieved remarkable results in breakthroughs in mineral exploration and technological innovation, in the face of global supply chain restructuring, intensifying geopolitical competition, and growing demand driven by high-quality economic and social development at home, we must remain committed to innovation-driven development, optimize industrial structure, and comprehensively enhance our capacity and resilience in ensuring the supply of energy and mineral resources.

The demand for critical minerals has soared

As artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, new energy sources, new materials, and the low-altitude economy accelerate their development, demand for strategic mineral resources is rapidly increasing. Currently, global demand for mineral resources is generally on the rise—particularly as traditional manufacturing evolves toward intelligent manufacturing, global energy transitions from fossil fuels to new energy sources, and bulk minerals give way to minerals used in strategic emerging industries.

Li Jinfā, former member of the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Natural Resources and former Director-General of the China Geological Survey, pointed out that global economic development is currently in a period of rapid growth in demand for mineral resources. Whether it's fossil fuels or minerals required by strategic emerging industries, overall demand is on the rise. Demand for new-energy minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel will grow at an exceptionally high rate, with increases exceeding tenfold by 2050. The demand for copper and aluminum—essential for high-end manufacturing—will continue to rise until peaking after 2040, while the value of minerals needed for smart manufacturing will more than double, with demand continuing to grow through 2050 at an increase ranging from three to seven times. "In particular, the new-energy vehicle industry is driving an explosive surge in demand for key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. However, the global supply of mineral resources exhibits an extremely high degree of concentration, posing significant risks to supply-chain security.""

"In particular, the supply of bulk minerals is highly concentrated in just a few countries. Globally, 80% of iron ore permits (and exports) are concentrated in Australia and Brazil, while 50% of bauxite production and over 80% of permits (and exports) are concentrated in Guinea. The concentration of supply is even more striking when it comes to minerals crucial for strategic emerging industries." Li Jinfā cited as an example that 59% of global nickel production and over 90% of global nickel exports are concentrated in Indonesia and the Philippines, and 68% of global cobalt production and over 90% of global cobalt exports are concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. "This highly concentrated supply pattern makes mineral resources extremely vulnerable to external factors such as geopolitical tensions and port controls."

"Overall, China's endowment of mineral resources is characterized by ‘relatively weak performance in bulk minerals but strong advantages in strategic and emerging minerals,'" Li Jinfa admitted frankly. The country has a high degree of external dependence on bulk minerals such as oil, natural gas, iron ore, and copper ore. In 2024, among the 24 key mineral products, nine were highly dependent on foreign sources, and ten showed a relatively high level of dependence. Moreover, the sources of imports and transportation routes remain relatively concentrated, making the situation regarding resource security still grim.

Digitalization empowers a new round of breakthroughs in mineral exploration

Facing challenges, enhancing domestic resource self-sufficiency and strengthening the resilience of industrial chains are the fundamental solutions. Participants unanimously agreed that we must adhere to technology-driven approaches and leverage technological innovation to unlock resource potential and improve utilization efficiency.

According to a reporter from China Energy News, since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the Ministry of Natural Resources has deeply advanced a new round of strategic actions for breakthroughs in mineral exploration, with cumulative investments reaching nearly 450 billion RMB. As a result, a number of significant breakthroughs in mineral exploration have been achieved, steadily enhancing our capacity to secure energy resources and continuously optimizing their structure. Among them, all 36 strategically important minerals have met the exploration targets set for the 14th Five-Year Plan.

"The China Geological Survey is fully committed to advancing a new round of strategic actions aimed at achieving breakthroughs in mineral exploration," pointed out Xu Xueyi, Deputy Director of the China Geological Survey. "We are committed to staying grounded in domestic resources while keeping an eye on the global landscape, strengthening strategic mineral exploration and evaluation, and striving to increase reserves and boost production of critical minerals. In terms of specific technological approaches, we will need to focus in the future on overcoming key challenges such as high-head sealing, high-strength materials, and intelligent control systems, thereby enhancing the industry chain's capacity for independent control. Particularly in cutting-edge fields like deep-earth exploration and deep-sea mining, we must accelerate the implementation of major national science and technology programs, break through ‘bottleneck' technologies, and comprehensively enhance our understanding of Earth's systems and our ability to discover new resources."

Cutting-edge technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing are providing new ideas and approaches for precise exploration of mineral resources and resilient resource assessment.

Liu Min, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Development of Natural Resources at China University of Geosciences (Beijing), also believes that digitalization and intelligentization are key levers for enhancing resource resilience. "I suggest that in the future, we should leverage digitalization and intelligentization to empower the entire resource industry chain, improve utilization efficiency, and, through policy guidance, transform digital dividends into momentum for green development. For example, we can use big data to conduct risk early warning across the entire chain, establish a quantitative data-sharing system that spans stages and elements, and proactively assess potential disruption risks throughout the entire value chain of critical minerals."

Build a highly resilient resource guarantee system

Regarding future trends in the development of critical energy minerals, experts have put forward recommendations for building a highly resilient resource security system from multiple perspectives, including policy mechanisms, international cooperation, and talent development.

Li Jinfa emphasized that, at the policy level, it is necessary to improve the support system, streamline approval procedures, refine market-based electricity pricing and mineral product pricing mechanisms, encourage private capital participation, and implement the energy storage and resource development goals outlined in local "15th Five-Year" plans. At the industrial level, we should promote integrated "wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage" systems and complementary multi-energy approaches, and foster the circular utilization of resources.

"He Chunyan, Director of the Global Energy Resources Discourse Research Division at the Institute for Strategic Development of Natural Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), believes that the global issue of critical minerals has evolved from a mere resource challenge into a systemic problem involving national security, industrial competition, and technological sovereignty—a threefold nexus. ‘Economies exhibit structural contradictions in their strategic positioning and conflicting narrative frameworks, which have intensified the global geopolitical dynamics.'"

"In response to challenges such as the intensifying geopolitical containment, we recommend building a non-confrontational, multi-party cooperation network," proposed He Chunyan. On the one hand, we should promote the internationalization of Chinese standards and strengthen compliance capacity-building. On the other hand, we should establish multinational cooperation bases for critical minerals that involve multiple countries and possess comprehensive processing capabilities, thereby enhancing the resilience of global supply chains. "Moreover, we should also leverage multilateral platforms such as BRICS and the SCO to set up agenda items for negotiating rules on critical minerals, establish regular consultation mechanisms, and boost our voice and influence on the international stage."

"By 2035, China's energy supply security capabilities are expected to continue strengthening, yet there will still be shortcomings in green production and circular utilization," Liu Min assessed. She predicted that China's mineral resources in the future will exhibit a development trend characterized by "excess quantity, lagging quality, structural imbalances, and leading efficiency."

Experts are calling for the need to adhere to an overarching approach that emphasizes ensuring quantity, enhancing quality, optimizing structure, and leading in efficiency. Specifically: First, we must prioritize protection and promote conservation and intensive use, thereby establishing a solid bottom line for natural resource security. Second, we should drive quality improvement and green transformation by leveraging technological breakthroughs, diversified investment, and coordinated regulation, thus creating a new paradigm of integrated governance for resources and the environment. Third, we must optimize structural and spatial layouts to facilitate efficient resource allocation and promote coordinated regional development. Fourth, we should harness digitalization and intelligent technologies to convert the benefits of scientific and technological advances into impetus for green development.

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