Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: Last week (October 27-31), the market price of 1# tin ingot in East China fluctuated and rose. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 283,510 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 284,350 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.30%. 

Analysis and Commentary

Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices remained relatively stable, with their price movements largely determined by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Particularly during periods of concentrated positive macroeconomic factors, tin prices had exhibited strong performance.

Given the continued constraints on the supply side and the widening supply-demand gap, tin prices are expected to show a slightly upward trend with fluctuations. However, since tin prices were already at a relatively high level, the response from the consumer side may limit further increases.

On the mining side, the resumption of production at Myanmar's mines was progressing slowly, and a significant recovery is not expected this year, thus limiting the supply of imported ore. In the refining sector, with the completion of smelter maintenance in October, the operating rate in Yunnan province had significantly increased, and output is expected to rise substantially. However, due to adjustments in Indonesia's RKAB approval system, Indonesian exports will slow, potentially restricting China's imports from Indonesia. Overall, the supply side remained tight.

On the demand side, the growth rate of domestic refined tin consumption had slowed significantly since the second half of the year. Meanwhile, due to persistently high tin prices, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase decreased, resulting in overall weak consumption, primarily driven by rigid demand. Going forward, it remained to be seen whether year-end consumption will improve due to a sales push.

Market outlook

Recently, the fundamentals of tin prices remained generally stable, with price fluctuations largely influenced by domestic and international macroeconomic expectations. Particularly during periods of concentrated positive macroeconomic factors, tin prices tended to exhibit a stronger upward trend. Based on this, it is predicted that tin prices will likely continue their volatile but upward-biased trend in the future.

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