Tin: Fundamentals remain supportive, with the market fluctuating but trending upward.

Spot: The average spot price for tin ingots on Shanghai Metal Market yesterday was 373,750 RMB/ton, up 17,250 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose again yesterday, with market caution persisting. As downstream enterprises concluded restocking and gradually entered holiday mode, overall market activity remained relatively subdued. While some traders continued shipments, most reported sluggish sales.

December 2025 imported tin concentrate shipments continued to rebound, rising 16.81% month-on-month and 119.37% year-on-year. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar decreased by 13.7% month-on-month, with the recovery pace aligning with market expectations. Production is expected to accelerate in the first quarter as mine shaft repairs and dewatering operations are completed. Yunnan's 40% tin ore processing fee remained unchanged at 14,000 RMB/ton, still at a low level. Both domestic and international tin ingot inventories continued to build. Although the pre-holiday period marks a seasonal slowdown in consumption, downstream procurement has shown signs of recovery following significant price corrections. Current orders primarily focus on inventory management and addressing accumulated essential needs, indicating limited overall demand recovery. This reflects marginal improvement after prolonged pressure from elevated prices.

Upstream Supply: Indonesia's exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January, compared to approximately 1,580 tons during the same period last year. The market anticipates stable Indonesian tin production quotas for 2026. Short-term developments: A landslide at a tin mine in Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Province, Indonesia, caused severe casualties, though no immediate impact on tin output has been reported. An earthquake occurred in Myanmar, but it was distant from the Wa State production area. The market continues to monitor the pace of renewed supply from Wa State in the new year. Reports indicate that earlier bottlenecks in production materials in the region have been partially resolved. Security concerns persist in eastern DRC, though authorities maintain distance from tin-producing areas. The primary impact is elevated security escort insurance costs. In mid-to-late January, third-party agencies raised domestic tin concentrate processing fees. Primary tin smelters are expected to operate at stable levels for the first two months, while recycled tin faces relative constraints due to raw material supply. Significant tin price declines have provided mid-to-downstream players with pre-holiday stockpiling opportunities. SteelHome tin inventories decreased by 1,658 tons last week to 9,898 tons. Global semiconductor sales continued to grow month-on-month in December 2025. Key growth drivers included logic products (up 39.9% annually) and memory chips (up 34.8%), both benefiting from AI-driven volume and price increases. Traditional consumer electronics saw modest growth. The rapid decline in silver prices has spurred production rushes ahead of the solar tax rebate cancellation, though Q1 growth in solar panel shipments remains limited. The expected quarterly boost to tin consumption is estimated at around 1,200 tons. Last week, LME tin inventories stabilized at 7,085 tons, while the LME 0-3 month spot discount narrowed slightly to $157.

Overall, Myanmar's production resumption coupled with the end of the rainy season has boosted domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue rising in Q1. Recent slight increases in tin ore processing fees indicate easing supply constraints. On the smelting side, most enterprises still maintain low raw material inventories and operate at a loss. Combined with increased year-end maintenance, refined tin output remains constrained, though post-holiday production pressure exists. Regarding imports, Indonesian tin exports have grown, gradually opening the import window and increasing import pressure. On the demand side, the strong development prospects of the AI sector will drive significant growth in solder demand. Recent tin price declines have revived downstream purchasing sentiment, with inventory and warehouse receipts declining markedly and spot premiums rebounding to 1,250 RMB/ton. LME inventories remain stable, supporting spot premium recovery. Tin futures prices are adjusting in the near to medium term amid expectations of supply easing, but sustained high-growth demand in the long term suggests rebound potential after thorough market correction.

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