Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a volatile downward trend during this cycle. From October 1 to 13, 2025, the price of 1,3-butadiene fell from 8,886.67 RMB/ton to 8,380 RMB/ton, a 5.7% decrease. The domestic 1,3-butadiene market remained generally weak during this period, with major refineries generally lowering their ex-factory prices. Downstream demand was generally weak, and the synthetic rubber market was weak, with low market entry enthusiasm and weak purchasing intentions. Actual market transactions were weak, and lack of demand support contributed to the overall weakness of the 1,3-butadiene market. As of October 13, the delivered price in Shandong was between 8,500 and 8,600 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Cost: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 10th, the November contract for US WTI crude oil futures settled at $58.90 per barrel. The December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $62.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices initially rose before falling. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain a key factor influencing the crude oil market. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, stimulated the crude oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+ has initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market remains concerned about the risk of long-term oversupply. The easing of the Israeli-Palestinian tensions, coupled with weakening US demand and the drag of US tariffs on the global economy and demand expectations, have led to a sharp decline in international oil prices.

On the supply side: Sinopec's 1,3-butadiene sales companies were listing prices at 8,800 RMB/ton.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally. It was shut down for maintenance starting August 14th, with no plans for export. It is expected to restart in October.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene unit iwas operating normally, with a price reduction of 100 RMB/ton to 8,400 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with 336 tons exported at a base price of 8,200 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 ton/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with a small amount of spot goods exported. The price has been reduced by 100 RMB/ton to 8,400 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the market for 1,3-butadiene rubber in East China was weakening. As of October 13, downstream terminals were inquiring based on demand. The ex-factory price of 1,3-butadiene rubber had dropped by a cumulative 300 RMB/ton since the holiday. Market transactions were sluggish, and merchant quotations were weakening. As of October 13, the mainstream prices for 1,3-butadiene in Daqing, Yangzi, and Qilu were 11,300 to 11,500 RMB/ton, with some private brands quoting around 11,000 to 11,350 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

There was no significant increase in downstream demand recently, and overall market expectations remained weak. With just-in-time purchasing intentions, the spot market was generally weak, and the market lacks positive factors to boost it. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the 1,3-butadiene market will be dominated by volatile and weaker trends in the short term, with a focus on downstream purchasing demand.

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