Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile downward trend in September 2025. From September 1 to 29, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 9,316.67 RMB/ton to 8,900 RMB/ton, a 4.47% decrease over the period.

Early September: There were limited changes in the supply and demand sides during this cycle. Affected by the fluctuations in the downstream synthetic rubber futures market, the butadiene market fell first, then rose, and then fell back this cycle, maintaining an overall range-bound trend.

Late September: The domestic butadiene market remained weak overall during this period. Demand performed poorly this cycle, with weak performance in the downstream synthetic rubber market. Market entry enthusiasm was low, purchasing intentions were muted, and actual market transactions were weak. Lacking demand support, the butadiene market remained weak overall. Near the end of the month, downstream pre-holiday stocking was largely completed, leaving the butadiene market with a relatively loose supply. Without demand support, the butadiene market declined again.

Analysis review

Cost: As of the 26th, the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.25 per barrel, and the October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.22 per barrel. Crude oil prices had been volatile during this round of price adjustments. OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from its planned production cuts of over 2.2 million barrels per day a year ahead of schedule, negative news for the oil market. Furthermore, tensions in Europe and the resulting peace talks had weakened geopolitical supply risks. Negative global macroeconomic data, coupled with expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, made it difficult for the crude oil market to maintain positive momentum.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene by Sinopec's sales companies was 9,000 RMB/ton as of the 29th, a decrease of 500 RMB/ton from the same period last month.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 ton/year butadiene unit was operating normally. It was shut down for maintenance starting August 14th, with no plans for export. It is expected to restart in October.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 ton/year butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price reduction of 120 RMB/ton to 8,900 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000 ton/year butadiene plant was operating normally, with a price reduction of 100 RMB/ton to 9,000 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 ton/year butadiene plant had restarted, with 224 tons exported at a base price of 9,000 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: The market for butadiene rubber (BR) weakened and fluctuated downward in September. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 29th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11,750 RMB/ton, down 3.69% from 12,200 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. This was due to the fluctuating price of raw material butadiene, which negatively impacted the cost of BR. Furthermore, a slight decline in BAR production capacity eased supply pressures. Downstream tire production capacity fluctuated slightly, primarily supporting demand for BR. As of September 29th, the mainstream BR prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangzi regions of East China were between 11,650 and 12,000 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

There had been no significant increase in downstream demand recently, and overall market expectations were weak. With the intention of purchasing for just-in-time needs, the spot market was generally weak. Pre-holiday stocking had been completed, and the market lacked positive factors to boost it. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be dominated by volatile and weaker trends in the short term, with a focus on post-holiday purchasing demand.

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