Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile downward trend this cycle. From September 19th to 26th, 2025, the price of butadiene fell from 9,250 RMB/ton to 9,023 RMB/ton, a 2.45% decrease. Last week, the domestic butadiene market remained generally weak, driven by poor demand. The downstream synthetic rubber market showed weak performance, low market entry enthusiasm, and subdued purchasing intentions. Actual market transactions were weak, and the lack of demand support contributed to the overall weakness of the butadiene market. As of September 26th, the delivered price in Shandong was between 9,050 and 9,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of approximately 200 RMB/ton compared to the same period last week.

Analysis review

Cost side: According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 26th, the November settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures was $65.72 per barrel. The December settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $69.22 per barrel. During this round of price adjustments, geopolitical factors remained a key factor influencing the crude oil market. Renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East triggered a temporary rebound in international crude oil prices. However, OPEC+'s decision to continued increasing production in October, coupled with rising US oil inventories, continued market expectations of oversupply pressure, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in international oil prices.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene by Sinopec sales companies was 9,150 RMB/ton.

Fushun Petrochemical's 160,000 ton/year butadiene unit was operating normally. It was shut down for maintenance starting August 14th, with no plans for export sales. It is expected to restart in October.

Shenghong Refining and Chemical's 200,000 ton/year butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price of 9,020 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000 ton/year butadiene unit had restarted, with a price of 9,100 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 26th, the butadiene rubber market in Northwest China was consolidating in a narrow range. With downstream pre-holiday stocking largely complete, butadiene rubber futures prices were weak and consolidating. Downstream suppliers were primarily inquiring based on demand, with some vendors making slight adjustments to their quotations. As of September 26, the mainstream butadiene rubber prices in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande were between 11,650 and 11,750 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

There has been no significant increase in downstream demand recently, and overall market expectations were weak. With the intention of purchasing for just-in-time needs, the spot market was generally weak. Pre-holiday stocking had been basically completed, and the market lacked positive factors to boost it. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be dominated by volatile and weaker trends in the short term, with a focus on post-holiday purchasing demand.

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