Price trend

During the 2025 National Holidays, the domestic vinyl cyanide price was mainly adjusted at a low level. As of October 9, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 8,050-8,150 RMB/ton, and the short-distance delivery price in Shandong market was 7,950-8,050 RMB/ton, both of which were slightly lower than before the holiday..

Market analysis:

In October, the domestic supply of vinyl cyanide increased significantly. Some of the units that had been overhauled in the early stage were restarted one after another. Combined with the increase in newly put into production units, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased to nearly 80%, while the overall demand remained relatively stable, resulting in further weakening of the fundamentals. At the same time, companies accumulated inventory during the long holiday, and the overall market showed a situation of oversupply. Under the pressure of excess resources, the market fluctuated downward, and some vinyl cyanide factories continued to lower their quotations, dragging down the spot market atmosphere. However, on the first day after the holiday, most operators were cautious and wait-and-see, and the inquiry atmosphere was relatively general.

Vinyl cyanide price fluctuation trend before and after National Day from 2022 to 2025:

Over the past three years, the vinyl cyanide market experienced both ups and downs during the National Day holiday. This volatility was primarily due to vinyl cyanide manufacturers reducing production and inventory in advance to manage inventory pressures. This, coupled with a certain level of pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream customers, fostered a positive trading atmosphere and a strong upward trend in trading volume. However, in the past two years, with the continuous increase in domestic vinyl cyanide production capacity, oversupply had become a significant issue, leading to a decline in downstream stockpiling efforts.

Fundamental Analysis:

On the supply side, vinyl cyanide plants had no planned maintenance in October. Due to the holiday, vinyl cyanide plants had accumulated inventory. Furthermore, there were expectations of restarting previously maintained plants. This, coupled with the shorter working days this month, has significantly increased supply pressure in the vinyl cyanide market.

On the demand side: Domestically, despite delays in the commissioning of some new units and postponed maintenance plans for some, some new units were still scheduled to start production, and some units under maintenance were gradually returning to normal. Barring unplanned maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase slightly in October. Regarding acrylic fiber, while fluctuations were still possible, due to frequent unit rotation and maintenance in the early stages, overall fluctuations are expected to be limited, with a slight increase in the operating rate. However, overall demand had remained relatively stable.

Market outlook

On the cost side, upstream propylene prices will likely dominate market trends, driven by supply-side fluctuations. The propylene market is expected to remain weak, potentially weakening its cost support for vinyl cyanide.

On the supply side, with units restarting after maintenance in October, vinyl cyanide market supply will continue to increase.

On the demand side, operating rates in the three major downstream sectors—ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide—generally remain low at 60%-70%, providing limited support for vinyl cyanide demand.

The mismatch in the pace of supply and demand growth in the vinyl cyanide industry led to a renewed oversupply, with the coexistence of accumulated inventory and loss pressure. The market will likely fluctuate and weaken in the short term, while the long-term supply outlook may remain uncertain, and the supply-demand relationship needs to improve.

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