Price trend

August had come to an end, and by the end of the month, domestic vinyl cyanide market prices had been fluctuating between 7,800 and 8,200 RMB/ton for three months. Overall, the vinyl cyanide industry remained in a weak equilibrium this month, with inventory under control and market prices remaining range-bound.

Analysis review

Both supply and demand saw growth during the month, with the vinyl cyanide and downstream ABS industries primarily focused on capacity expansion, while the downstream acrylic fiber industry maintained high operating levels. By the end of the month, one line of Jilin Petrochemical's new 260,000-ton capacity facility had stabilized, bringing China's total effective vinyl cyanide production capacity to 5.319 million tons/year. Shandong Yike's second 75,000-ton/year ABS production line also achieved stable production, bringing the base ABS production capacity to 10.23 million tons.

At the same time, due to the maintenance and voluntary production cuts at vinyl cyanide plants, the supply increase had been controlled, but the supply-demand gap had first increased and then decreased. Daqing Petrochemical recently shut down, Fushun and Tianchen units were also shut down, Yulong, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, Quanzhou Petrochemical and other units were in a production reduction state, but the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical units had increased.

However, as of August 31, the vinyl cyanide industry still had overcapacity. According to demand data, it is estimated that the total domestic consumption and exports in 2025 may still be less than 4 million tons. This means that the premise for the vinyl cyanide market to maintain a weak balance is that active supply control is still needed, and the industry's capacity utilization rate must be maintained at around 75% or below.

In addition, long-term production losses had also forced vinyl cyanide factories to proactively reduce production. Since 2025, major East China factories such as Sailboat and Shanghai Secco basically maintained low-load operation between 50% and 70%. Although Zhenhai Refining and Chemical had emerged as a new production capacity, thanks to its favorable geographical conditions in a consumption concentrated area, its production and sales had been relatively stable since its commissioning. In contrast, Sinochem Quanzhou had reduced its operation by half.

Market outlook

Due to ongoing maintenance at plants in northern China and no significant plans for increased supply in East China, while downstream consumption may improve as it enters its traditional peak season, the supply-demand gap is expected to narrow further. However, due to subjective adjustments on the supply side, uncertainty remains. Overall, the vinyl cyanide industry is expected to remain in a weak balance, and the market stalemate is expected to persist.

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