According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper will continue to rise in September 2025 due to the tight supply of raw materials. On September 30th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,764 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the average price on September 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province continued to rise in September, and domestic waste paper prices mostly showed an upward trend. On September 30th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,722 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.87% compared to the average price on September 1st. The price of domestic waste yellow cardboard continued to rise in September, supported by tight supply and the peak demand season of Mid Autumn Festival. The tight supply of waste paper is partly due to the low season of domestic commodity consumption in the early stage, resulting in less production of waste yellow cardboard; On the other hand, the longer rainy season this year has also caused some disturbance to the supply of waste yellow cardboard. In addition, the packaging factory's intention to stock up has increased, the profit of finished paper in paper enterprises has been restored, the operating load rate has increased, and the purchase of waste yellow cardboard has been increased, further pushing up the price of waste yellow cardboard.

Supply side: The price trend of corrugated paper in September is basically linked to the price of raw material waste paper, showing an overall upward trend. In mid month, large-scale paper mill facilities in Zhejiang suddenly shut down, causing a certain shortage of market supply. Subsequently, due to the impact of the National Day holiday, some upstream paper mills were expected to shut down for maintenance, which led to a decline in the supply of corrugated paper in the market. In addition, some small and medium-sized paper mills had smooth shipments and maintained low inventory levels, resulting in a strong willingness to follow suit and providing positive support for paper prices.

On the demand side: In September, large-scale paper mills repeatedly raised their ex factory prices and released expectations for the next round of price increases, continuously boosting market bullish sentiment and driving some small and medium-sized paper mills to follow suit, supporting the rise in paper prices. With the continuous rise in corrugated paper prices, downstream packaging factories maintain a medium to high level of raw paper reserves, and most paper mills have little inventory pressure. As the demand for National Day and Mid Autumn Festival has been released, the packaging factory orders are slightly better.

SunSirs paper analysts believe that with the end of the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holidays, paper mills are gradually resuming production and work, and market supply may increase. On the demand side, there may be a decrease in demand after the holiday, which will exert some pressure on the market. However, due to the impact of price increase letters from large-scale paper mills, it is expected that corrugated paper prices may still have strong performance in the short term.

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