Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber price fluctuated downward in September. As of September 29, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,444 RMB/ton, down 1.39% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The crude oil market, influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, saw wide price fluctuations in September. As of the 26th, the November contract for US WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.72 per barrel, and the December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.22 per barrel. Geopolitical factors remained a key factor influencing the crude oil market. The Russia-Ukraine issue had contributed to a relatively stronger market, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut had been positive for the international oil market and the crude oil market. Furthermore, the potential for increased Saudi crude oil production, rising US crude oil inventories, and the end of the US oil consumption season, coupled with a pessimistic global economic outlook and oil demand, had put pressure on crude oil prices.

The domestic PTA market recovered after a period of decline in September. By the end of September, the average price in East China was 4,612 RMB/ton, down 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Concerns about continued crude oil production increases, expectations of increased PTA supply, and weak demand led to a decline in prices in mid-to-early September. At the end of the month, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine posed potential supply risks, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices and improved supply and demand for downstream pre-holiday stocking, which led to a slight recovery in PTA prices from their lows. In September, PTA plants underwent both maintenance and restarts, with the industry operating at approximately 77% of capacity. Despite significant fluctuations in plant supply, overall spot supply remained sample, with a slight accumulation of social inventories. While some plants are scheduled for maintenance in October, a new 3 million ton plant is expected to start production as scheduled, further increasing market supply pressure.

While we're in the traditional peak consumer season of September and October, downstream yarn mills hadn't seen the expected significant rebound in demand. Purchases were primarily focused on just-in-time needs, resulting in a sluggish overall market and limited support for upstream raw materials. While terminal orders had seen a modest recovery, the volume remained modest. Constrained by high inventory levels, raw material purchases were cautious, primarily in small batches. At the end of the month, some downstream mills, affected by the pre-holiday period, saw a small increase in inventory, but this trend had been limited.

Market outlook

Analysts of SunSirs believe that the continued addition of new PTA production capacity had exacerbated market concerns about oversupply, with weaker costs providing insufficient support. Downstream companies had largely completed restocking before the National Day holiday, and the market lacked clear positive guidance. Polyester staple fiber prices are expected to remain weaker in October.

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