According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has remained stable with slight fluctuations this week, with a slight increase. On September 25, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,764 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the average price on September 21.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region first decreased and then increased this week. The price of waste paper in domestic paper mills remained fluctuating. On September 25, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang region was 1,702 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on September 21. With the upcoming National Day holiday, packaging stations are more active in shipping, and market supply may be concentrated, leading to an expected increase in the arrival volume of paper mills. In addition, the operating load rate of paper mills is still at a high level, but with the increase of finished paper inventory, some paper mills may reduce their operating capacity. Therefore, there is an expectation of weak and declining demand for waste yellow cardboard. Currently, paper mills adjust the price of waste paper according to their own needs.

Supply side: Recently, due to the upward market trend, the production enthusiasm of paper mills has increased, and the operating load rate of corrugated paper has also increased. The inventory of corrugated paper is showing a decreasing trend, and there are also some areas where the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure of paper mills is not significant. At the same time, large-scale paper mills have released a shutdown and maintenance plan before and after the National Day holiday, with a shutdown period of 3-10 days, in order to maintain the atmosphere of market price increases and enhance the purchasing enthusiasm of packaging factories for raw paper.

Demand: At present, with the release of demand for National Day and Mid Autumn Festival, the packaging factory orders are slightly better. In addition, due to factors such as downtime and maintenance during the National Day holiday, the bearish sentiment in the holiday market is no longer strong. Therefore, downstream paper packaging companies still have a willingness to replenish their inventory before the holiday. But after the holiday, the end of terminal demand orders and insufficient follow-up of new orders from packaging factories may affect the future market growth of corrugated and box board paper.

SunSirs paper analysts believe that the current peak season for stocking corrugated paper during the Mid Autumn Festival is gradually coming to an end, and demand will also slow down in stages, which may put pressure on prices again. However, the continuous maintenance of paper mills and the release of price increase letters still provide some support for the corrugated paper market in the short term, and it is expected that corrugated paper prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

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