According to SunSirs Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System: Cobalt prices reached 309,300 RMB per ton on September 26, a significant increase from 275,000 RMB per ton on September 21, marking a 12.47% rise. The introduction of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has fueled expectations of tightened cobalt supply in the international market, driving prices sharply higher.

DRC Introduces Export Quota System

The DRC's Strategic Minerals Market Regulation and Control Agency announced on the 21st that the country will end its cobalt export ban, in place since February this year, effective October 15th. Starting October 16th, an export quota system will be implemented until further notice. For the remainder of this year, Congolese mining companies will be permitted to export over 18,000 metric tons of cobalt. Annual export caps for 2026 and 2027 are set at 96,600 metric tons each. The implementation of this export quota system by the Congolese government has drastically reduced cobalt supply in the market.

Anticipated Supply Shortage in Cobalt Market

Under the DRC's cobalt export quota system:

- From October to December 2025, mining companies will be permitted to export over 18,000 metric tons of cobalt.

- Annual export caps for 2026 and 2027 will be set at 96,600 metric tons each year. Compared to the nearly 250,000 metric tons exported in 2024, the 2026 annual quota represents less than 40% of the 2024 production volume. The DRC supplies over 70% of the global cobalt market. Its quota system will trigger supply shortages. While cobalt projects in Indonesia, Australia, and other countries partially offset the shortfall, their increased production capacity falls far short of compensating for the DRC's supply gap. Global cobalt supply is projected to face an annual deficit of 50,000 tons between 2026 and 2027.

Summary and Outlook

SunSirs data analysts note that while the DRC's adoption of export quotas and increased production from projects in Indonesia, Australia, and other countries will partially offset the supply shortage, the overall cobalt market is still expected to face a deficit over the next three years, providing additional upward pressure on prices. Rising cobalt prices will stimulate market demand for substitutes. The vigorous promotion of cobalt recycling projects will help offset market shortages, while the introduction of new battery technologies will compete for cobalt demand. Overall, cobalt supply shortages and significant price increases are expected over the next two years. However, whether cobalt prices can sustain this upward trend remains uncertain. As recycled cobalt and new cobalt projects in other countries advance, the market shortage may fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, the commercialization of new battery technologies will divert cobalt demand. Overall, the anticipated supply-demand imbalance may not materialize as projected. With cobalt prices approaching 350,000 RMB per ton, the risk of market overheating increases. Exercise extreme caution.

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