The rise in cobalt prices was slowing down

According to SunSirs' commodity cobalt market analysis system: on December 23rd, the price of cobalt was 415,100 RMB/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.44% compared to the price of 409,200 RMB/ton on December 1st. Following the introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tenke Fungurume Mining, a subsidiary of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (CMOC), officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. With the official resumption of cobalt exports from the DRC, which had been suspended for nearly 10 months, an increase in cobalt supply from the DRC market is expected, and the global cobalt market supply is projected to recover.

Congo (DRC) planned to resume cobalt exports

On December 22, 2025, news from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Tenke Fungurume Mining, a subsidiary of CMOC, the world's second-largest cobalt producer, officially launched the first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. According to government sources, the sampling is expected to be completed within a few days, marking the implementation of the export quotas since the DRC introduced new cobalt export regulations in October. This is expected to alleviate the supply shortage in the DRC cobalt market. However, industry lobbying groups have raised concerns that completing prepayment and certificate applications within 48 hours is "too tight," potentially leading to export delays. If CMOC's sampling is successfully completed within a few days, it will prove the feasibility of the process; otherwise, it could exacerbate market fears of "supply disruptions." Further details regarding DRC cobalt exports require close monitoring. Whether the cobalt market supply remains tight or returns to normal depends on whether CMOC's exports are successfully completed in the next 2-5 days.

Market Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, Luoyang Molybdenum's cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo have begun sampling, and exports from the DRC are slowly returning to normal.  This is expected to increase global cobalt supply. If Luoyang Molybdenum's cobalt exports are successfully completed, the expected increase in cobalt supply will be significant, shifting the cobalt market from a shortage to a relatively balanced state. However, if exports are unsuccessful, fears of a cobalt supply shortage or even disruption will intensify. Overall, in the short term, the risk of price fluctuations in the next week is high, and the direction of price changes is uncertain. Once Luoyang Molybdenum's cobalt exports are completed, cobalt prices will inevitably experience a decline, but the drop will be limited before the cobalt arrives in China, and there will still be opportunities for a rebound.

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