Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in 2025:

According to SunSirs' commodity cobalt market analysis system: on December 30th, the price of cobalt was 452,800 RMB/ton, a significant increase from the price of 169,000 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a surge of 167.93%. Driven by a combination of factors including the cobalt export ban and export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to supply shortages and increased demand, cobalt prices skyrocketed in 2025. With the resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the commissioning of new production capacity in Indonesia and other countries, what direction will cobalt prices take in 2026?

Analysis of cobalt price trends under the 2025 Democratic Republic of Congo cobalt export ban

On February 24, authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that the country decided to suspend cobalt exports for four months to address the global oversupply in the cobalt market. This measure applies to all cobalt exports originating from mining in Congo, regardless of whether they come from industrial, semi-industrial, small-scale, or artisanal mining. The measure took effect on February 22.

The Democratic Republic of Congo announced that, effective June 21, 2025, due to persistently high inventory levels in the market, it has decided to extend the temporary ban for another three months from the date this decision takes effect.

In the early hours of September 22nd, the Democratic Republic of Congo's strategic minerals regulatory body announced that the country would extend its cobalt export ban until October 15th, lifting the ban on October 16th and implementing annual export quotas. From October to December 2025, mining companies in the DRC will be allowed to export over 18,000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum annual export volume of 96,600 tons in 2026 and 2027.

The Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) jointly announced on November 26th that exporters must prepay a 10% royalty fee within 48 hours of submitting their origin and sales declarations and obtain a compliance certificate before customs clearance. The royalty fee will be calculated and paid only after sampling and laboratory testing to determine the quality and quantity of the goods. Goods without proof of payment will not be allowed to leave the port.

According to the commodity cobalt market analysis system of SunSirs, the cobalt price trend in 2025 can be divided into several stages, corresponding to the release time of the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the cobalt market inventory shows different performance in each stage. Stage 1: January to mid-February, the cobalt market experienced oversupply; Stage 2: The DRC announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, leading to a sharp increase in cobalt prices, while market inventory remained unchanged; Stage 3: Due to time lag factors such as shipping cycles, cobalt exported from the DRC continued to enter the market, resulting in persistently high cobalt market inventory; Stage 4: The cobalt export ban was extended, and cobalt market inventory began to be consumed; Stage 5: A cobalt export quota system was introduced, and cobalt market inventory continued to be consumed, with little prospect of replenishment.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export policy in 2025 directly determined the trend of cobalt prices. In 2026, with a relatively stable cobalt export policy from the DRC, the supply and demand dynamics of the cobalt market will determine future trends.

Analysis of Cobalt Market Supply and Demand Trends in 2026

Cobalt Market Supply Trends in 2026

The Congolese Agency for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Markets (ARECOMS) announced that due to delays in implementing new export procedures, the country has decided to allow cobalt mining companies to retain their full export quotas allocated for 2025, preventing them from losing their export rights due to incomplete procedures. This means that the unfulfilled quotas are expected to be carried over for use in 2026. The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export quota for 2026 is approximately 114,600 tons.

In early December 2025, Glencore became the first mining company to export cobalt under Congo's new quota system and has already shipped small initial batches to test the system. On December 22, 2025, Tenke Fungurume Mining, a subsidiary of CMOC, the world's second-largest cobalt producer, officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. Due to time lags such as shipping cycles, and considering that the transportation time from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China is approximately three months, the arrival of cobalt raw materials in China is expected to be concentrated in April.

Huayou Cobalt's two nickel-cobalt hydrometallurgical projects in Indonesia, Huayue and Huafeng,  shipped approximately 18,000 metal tons of cobalt in MHP (nickel-cobalt hydroxide) in 2024. The Huayue and Huafeng projects have capacities of 7,800 tons and 15,000 tons respectively, and both achieved stable production exceeding capacity in 2025. In addition, the newly constructed Pomalaa hydrometallurgical project with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal has commenced construction and is expected to be completed and put into operation before the end of 2026; the Sorowako hydrometallurgical project with an annual capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel metal is expected to begin construction in 2026. The products of both the Pomalaa and Sorowako hydrometallurgical projects are cobalt-containing MHP. In Indonesia, the nickel-to-cobalt recovery ratio in high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) of laterite nickel ore is typically around 10:1. An additional 18,000 tons of cobalt capacity is expected to be added in 2026.

GEM's Indonesian Qingmei Bang project has an annual cobalt production capacity of 12,000 tons. In the first half of 2025, GEM's Indonesian nickel resource project produced 3,667 tons of cobalt metal, a year-on-year increase of 125%, with monthly production exceeding 900 tons in July; domestically, GEM recycles approximately 10,000 tons of cobalt metal annually.

Likin Resources and its partners are jointly investing in a nickel smelting production line on Obi Island, Indonesia. The hydrometallurgical nickel project has a planned capacity of 14,000 tons of cobalt, with an equity capacity of 8,200 tons of cobalt, and was fully commissioned in 2024. The first phase of the pyrometallurgical project has a capacity of 95,000 tons and was commissioned in 2023. Some production lines of the second phase project were commissioned in the first quarter of 2025, with full commissioning expected in 2026. The company's total capacity will then increase to 280,000 tons, with an equity capacity of 155,000 tons.

Cobalt market demand forecast for 2026

The US and Europe are accelerating their strategic cobalt reserves. On August 21, 2025, the U.S. Department of Defense and the Defense Logistics Agency issued a tender document, planning to purchase approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with an annual purchase of about 1,500 tons, for strategic reserves. The procurement amount could reach up to $500 million. The EU has also initiated a 1,000-ton reserve program. These strategic stockpiling actions highlight the resource security importance of cobalt and indicate rising demand for the metal.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), from January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 14.907 million and 14.78 million units respectively. New energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20 million units in 2026. The significant increase in new energy vehicle sales creates a strong demand for cobalt; however, the proportion of ternary batteries in installed vehicles is decreasing year by year, and coupled with the market's promotion of high-nickel, low-cobalt ternary batteries, the growth in demand for cobalt from new energy vehicle ternary batteries is limited.

The industrialization process of emerging industries such as humanoid robots is opening up new long-term growth opportunities for cobalt consumption. Regarding humanoid robot production in 2025, the industry is in its early stages of mass production, and there are currently no unified official annual statistics. Global sales in 2025 are predicted by several institutions to be between 12,000 and 18,000 units. China's sales in 2025 are expected to account for a significant portion of global sales, potentially exceeding 10,000 units. Whether humanoid robots experience explosive growth in 2026 will determine the new demand for cobalt.

Market Overview and Future Outlook

According to data analysts at the Business News Agency, global cobalt supply is expected to reach approximately 215,000 tons in 2026, while global demand is projected to be between 221,000 and 240,000 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 6,000 to 25,000 tons in 2026. This supply shortage provides strong support for rising cobalt prices. Furthermore, the 10% royalty fee under the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), coupled with increasing environmental pressure in the DRC, will increase the cost of cobalt raw material exports from the DRC.  Therefore, the future floor price of cobalt is expected to remain above 300,000-350,000 RMB/ton. Due to difficulties in DRC cobalt exports reaching ports before April, and the continuous depletion of domestic cobalt inventories, cobalt inventories are expected to bottom out by the end of April.  Supported by strong demand, cobalt prices may surge to their highest level of the year, potentially briefly reaching the 2018 peak of 660,000 RMB/ton.

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