According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since July, the soybean meal market has fluctuated downward due to the long short game. On July 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,930 RMB/ton, and on July 16th, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,916 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.48% in price.

Supply side: In the first half of 2025, China imported a total of 49.37 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Among them, a total of 12.26 million tons of soybeans were imported in June, an increase of 10.35% year-on-year. Starting from July, the import quantity of raw soybeans has been continuously increasing, and the supply pressure has gradually increased, resulting in a weak rise in the soybean meal market.

Inventory: Since April, due to the impact of tariff policies, the number of imported soybeans arriving at ports has been continuously decreasing, and soybean meal inventory has hit a new record, falling to single digits. In early May, the number of imported soybeans arriving at the port recovered, and soybean meal inventories gradually rebounded. In June, the soybean meal inventory continued to increase and rose until early July. As of the week of July 9th, the soybean meal inventory exceeded 800,000 tons. The inventory pressure has doubled, and the soybean meal market is running weakly.

Futures: As we enter July, although the estimated planting area in the United States has decreased, the excellent growth rate of American beans remains at a high level. The market is characterized by a combination of long and short positions, and the external bean futures market is fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal futures market fluctuated widely with the market, while the overall spot market showed weak fluctuations. As of July 16th, the main contract for soybean meal received 2,977 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from early July. The boosting effect of futures market is limited, and the soybean meal market is weakly oscillating.

Demand: After July, as temperatures rise and the operating rate of the terminal breeding industry decreases, the demand for soybean meal is poor, and the market is mainly bearish on the soybean meal market. The purchasing enthusiasm of the terminal feed factory is poor. The trading volume of soybean meal market has decreased, and the sales volume is flat. The terminal demand is sluggish, and the soybean meal market is declining.

The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that in late July, the quantity of imported soybeans as raw materials continued to rise, the operating rate of soybean oil plants was still acceptable, and the terminal demand was weak. The soybean meal market is still under pressure to rise in the future.

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