In mid July, the domestic thermal coal market continued to strengthen, presenting a game pattern of "high temperature demand driving and policy regulation struggle". Taking July 14th as an example, the prices of the three major calorific value coal types collectively rose, with 5,500 kcal of thermal coal reporting an increase of 630 RMB/ton for eight consecutive days. However, due to policy ceilings and inventory pressure, the overall increase remained at a moderate level of 1-2 RMB/ton.
The market operation presents three major characteristics: firstly, the "meteorological economy" effect is prominent. The sustained extreme high temperatures above 40 ℃ in East and Central China have pushed the national electricity load to a new high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, and the daily coal consumption of power plants continues to remain at a high level of 1.95 million tons. The proportion of electricity consumption for air conditioning and refrigeration is close to that of Banbi Jiangshan; Secondly, the contradiction of "structural shortage" is prominent. 4500 kcal low calorific value coal has gained stronger upward momentum due to strong demand for chemical industry and tight port supply, while high kcal coal is suppressed by long-term cooperative supply and new energy substitution; The third is the intensification of "regional differentiation". The production of new mines in the northwest region has brought local looseness, but heavy rainfall has caused the capacity utilization rate of the main production areas in the "Three West" to fall below 81%, and the transportation volume of the Daqin Line has sharply decreased by 8.5%, forming a bottleneck for port arrivals.
At the policy level, there is a "dual track regulation" feature: on the one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission has suppressed market overheating through a price ceiling of 650 RMB/ton and the release of 5 million tons of reserve coal, and on the other hand, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy generation has exceeded 15%, reshaping the power structure. It is worth noting that the price advantage of imported coal continues to narrow, and the price difference of 3800 kcal Indonesian coal has been compressed to 10 RMB/ton, prompting some power plants to turn to domestic trade procurement.
Looking ahead to the future, the thermal coal market may continue its volatile trend of "two advances and one retreat". In the short term, whether the port inventory can effectively fall below the 25 million ton mark will become a key point for price breakthroughs; In the medium to long term, it is constrained by the "barrier lake effect" of an 8.3% year-on-year increase in the overall social inventory, and it is expected that the operating range will remain between 600-680 RMB/ton in the second half of the year. This "top and bottom" box pattern vividly reflects the phased positioning of traditional energy in the dual carbon transformation.
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