Price trend

Driven by the overall strength of ferrous series futures, coupled with the positive news of ferrosilicon itself and recent macroeconomic policy stimulus, ferrosilicon futures have risen strongly, significantly boosting market sentiment. The spot market has also been relatively strong, and some quotations have been tentatively raised. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, on July 11th, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75-B; The market price for natural blocks (granularity grade/mm) in Ningxia was between 5,200-5,300 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,217 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.53% from Monday.

Influence factor

Raw material semi-coke market: The nationwide semi-coke market was running weakly in the week, with some downstream enterprises raising or lowering prices by 35-40 RMB/ton, which has not yet been fully implemented. The market was mostly stable and waiting to see. As of July 11th, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market were 570-670 RMB/ton, and 420-480 RMB/ton for coke flour; The price range for the Fugu market was 620-680 RMB/ton for medium materials, 590-700 RMB/ton for small materials, and 440-540 RMB/ton for coke flour; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market was 495 RMB/ton; Shizuishan Market Mix 500 RMB/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 500-640 RMB/ton, and the price of coke flour was 480-500 RMB/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market was 620 RMB/ton, and the price of coke flour was 540 RMB/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Hami market was 620-850 RMB/ton, the price of coke flour was 260 RMB/ton, and the price of mixed materials was 195-290 RMB/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market was 850 RMB/ton, and the price of coke flour was 350 RMB/ton, both of which were ex factory cash prices including tax; The price of small and medium-sized coal in Tianjin Port was 840-890 RMB/ton, all of which were cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price; The prices for small materials were 280-500 RMB/ton, coke flour prices were 320-600 RMB/ton, mainstream coal powder prices were 470 RMB/ton, and grain sized coal materials prices were 350-370 RMB/ton, all of which were cash inclusive of tax at the factory price.

Construction progress

The fluctuation of supply and demand was not significant. As of July 10th, the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 31.20%, a decrease of 0.76% compared to the previous week; The daily output was 14,110 tons, a decrease of 1.46% compared to last week, a decrease of 210 tons.

Downstream situation

Steel mills were operating at a high level, and their rigid demand was not decreasing during the bidding period. On July 9th of last week, a steel mill in Guangdong Province bid for 500 tons of ferrosilicon at a price of 5,590 RMB/ton, with cash including tax arriving at the factory. The bidding quantity of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon was 2,700 tons, and the previous bidding quantity was 2,200 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to the previous round. Small and medium-sized steel mills were waiting for the pricing of Hebei Steel, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods had increased.

Market outlook

The actual demand situation has not shown significant improvement, and there was still considerable uncertainty in the final pricing of iconic large factories. In addition, there were in the market that mainstream steel mills in Shanxi have received verbal notices of crude steel production restrictions, requiring a 10% -30% reduction in production based on the 2024 production benchmark, with the goal of reducing crude steel production by about 6 million tons throughout the province through load reduction. As of July 11th, only one of the 12 steel mills in Shanxi Province implemented the shutdown of blast furnaces, and the remaining steel mills have stated that they will gradually formulate production reduction measures according to the requirements of the indicators. It is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon market will maintain a stable operating trend, and the possibility of significant price fluctuations is unlikely.

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