In June, ferrosilicon prices fell first and then rose, but the overall price was still weak. Affected by the overall decline in the black futures market, the market resumed after the holiday, and the ferrosilicon futures market fell sharply. The price on the disk fell significantly. The outflow of low-priced goods from the delivery warehouse had a significant impact on the spot market, lowering the market transaction center of gravity. In mid-to-late June, as the futures market fluctuated upward, the disk price gradually climbed. The recent industry sentiment has been restored. In addition, the prices of some raw materials have remained stable, the operating cost side still has certain support, and other favorable information has stimulated some ferrosilicon quotations. It has become more difficult for buyers to lower prices, and the market has reduced low-priced goods.
However, with the slow progress of the new round of steel mill bidding, the deepening of the traditional off-season of industry demand, and the market demand situation still needing to be improved, the price of ferrosilicon has been hindered from rising, and the overall performance is slightly stagnant. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on June 30, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size grade/mm: natural block) in Ningxia was 5150-5250 RMB/ton, and the average market price was 5158 RMB/ton, down 2.64% from the beginning of the month.
Influencing factors
Raw materials
Semicoke: In June, the number of semicoke production enterprises that resumed production increased, mostly concentrated in Shaanxi, and prices were weak. At present, the supply and demand of the semicoke market is relatively loose, and the driving force for the rise in semicoke prices is not strong. The market is in a wait-and-see mood, and stability is still the main trend in the short term. As of June 27, the mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in Shenmu market is 570-670 RMB/ton, and the coke surface is 420-480 RMB/ton; the current price of medium-sized materials in Fugu market is 620-680 RMB/ton, small materials are 590-700 RMB/ton, and the coke surface is 440-540 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of coke surface in Zhongwei market is 495 RMB/ton; mixed materials in Shizuishan market are 500 RMB/ton; small and medium-sized materials in Ordos market are 500-640 RMB/ton, and the coke surface is 480-500 RMB/ton; small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market are 620 RMB/ton, and the coke surface is 540 RMB/ton; small and medium-sized materials in Hami market are 620-850 RMB/ton, the coke surface is 260 RMB/ton, and mixed materials are 215-290 RMB/ton; the price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850RMB/ton, and the price of coke is 350 RMB/ton. All of the above are ex-factory prices in cash including tax; the price of semicoke small and medium-sized materials in Tianjin Port is 860-910 RMB/ton, and the price of coke is 880 RMB/ton. All of the above are port closing prices in cash including tax; the current price of small materials is 280-500 RMB/ton, and the price of coke is 320-600 RMB/ton, the mainstream price of carbon powder is 470 RMB/ton, and the price of rice materials is 350-370 RMB/ton. All of them are ex-factory prices in cash including tax.
Supply and demand
In terms of ferrosilicon supply, the supply from production areas is stable and orderly, and the output remains low. However, the price has been relatively stable recently, and the destocking has not accelerated. As of June 26, the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 31.70%, down 0.99% from the previous period; the average daily output was 13,940 tons, down 50 tons from the previous period.
Steel recruitment situation
Downstream southern steel mills have started bidding for July. The bidding price of ferrosilicon in a steel mill in Jiangsu is 5570 RMB/ton, the quantity is 900 tons, and the acceptance is tax-inclusive to the factory. The export situation of ferrosilicon is a bit chaotic and not obviously optimistic. However, some domestic traders in the market have begun to raise prices, with a range of about US$30 FOB. Customer acceptance needs to be followed up. The total export volume of ferrosilicon in May was 36,684 tons, a decrease of 3.96% from the previous month and a decrease of 7.09% from the previous year. (The total export volume in May 2024 was 39,484 tons).
Analysis and Forecast
As market transactions decline, changes in production and inventory are meeting the expectations of off-season demand, and the market trading mentality is relatively stable. However, the rigid market volume in terms of demand is still there, and there is still a drive to purchase goods in the risk of low inventory. The lack of confidence in the rebound of the steel market is still difficult to drive purchasing demand on a large scale. At present, the downstream mainly purchases goods on demand, and some traders and terminal companies are appropriately replenishing their inventories. In terms of price, ferrosilicon has not reached the bottom expectation, and further adjustments may slow down. If enterprises in Inner Mongolia resume production, the overall supply will rebound significantly. It is expected that the ferrosilicon spot market will continue to operate weakly and steadily in July.
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