After the Dragon Boat Festival, the north was hot and the south was rainy, and the terminal purchasing demand decreased. At the same time, the supply of steel bars decreased, the market inventory was generally low, and the dealers were not under much sales pressure, but the long-short game of futures screws intensified, the market trend fluctuated, the market sentiment changed frequently, and the spot price rose and fell. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of ordinary medium plates (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3252 RMB/ton on June 6, down 1.51% from Monday.

1. Influencing factors

Bill market: Last week, the domestic billet price fell first and then rose. As of June 6, the tax-inclusive price of Tangshan ordinary square billets was 2900 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton from the previous week. In terms of inventory, Tangshan's main warehouse inventory was 578,500 tons, an increase of 6,100 tons from last week. In the first half of the week, the futures market was under pressure to move downward, the downstream finished products were not selling well, the billet market demand declined, and the billet price fell slightly; in the second half of the week, the futures market rebounded, the confidence in the billet market increased, and the billet price rose slightly. Considering that the billet inventory is at a low level, but the operation is cautious in the off-season, it is expected that the domestic billet market will fluctuate and run weakly this week.

Supply and demand

From the perspective of social inventory, the cumulative inventory of rebar in major sample cities across the country is 3.8784 million tons, a decrease of 90,200 tons from the previous week; the cumulative inventory of wire rod is 579,500 tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous week; the cumulative inventory of the five major steel varieties (rebar, hot-rolled coil, wire rod, cold-rolled coil and mild steel plate) is 9.3879 million tons, a decrease of 19,800 tons from the previous week.

2. Analysis and Forecast

On the whole, there will be a high temperature warning in the north next week, and a new round of rainfall will start in the south. Extreme weather will continue to affect demand. In addition, during the national college entrance examination, cities require "silent" construction, and the terminal table needs to decline further. At the same time, the United States doubled the import tariff on steel and aluminum to 50%. Faced with the decline in domestic demand and the pressure on export expectations, some steel companies have increased production line maintenance. The output of molten iron has been slowly declining for four consecutive weeks, and the supply of rebar will continue to decrease. In addition, coke has been suppressed by steel companies again, and the cost support is not strong. The reduction of steel bar inventory has slowed down and is close to the turning point. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has stopped falling and accumulated slightly. The market operation is still cautious.

It is expected that the domestic mild steel plate market will continue to be weak in the short term.

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