Price trend review

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on May 16, the spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 126,258 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.20%, showing the overall characteristics of "up-down-up, range fluctuations", mainly affected by the alternation of macro sentiment recovery and fundamental suppression.

Macro: Sino-US trade easing + domestic policy boost

Significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs:

On May 12, China and the United States reached a consensus on economic and trade, and both sides canceled 91% of tariffs, suspended 24% tariffs, and reduced tariffs to 10% after April 2, directly alleviating the cost pressure of export-oriented manufacturing.

After the agreement came into effect, the number of Sino-US container transport bookings soared 277% in 9 days, and the market demand for metals was expected to improve.

Domestic financial policies are in force:

The central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, expectations of liquidity easing increased, and sentiment in the industrial product market rebounded.

Supply side: Policy news disturbs, overstock remains unchanged

Rumors of Philippine nickel ore export ban: Market rumors say the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 (requires congressional approval, long implementation period), which will stimulate bullish sentiment in the short term, but the actual supply impact is limited (after 2025).

Indonesia's tight supply continues: The rainy season continued in May, nickel ore mining was hindered, domestic trade prices were firm, and nickel iron costs were supported in the short term.

Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory fell by 2,448 tons per week (to 195,222 tons), and overseas spot pressure eased slightly. Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 75 tons per week (to 23,501 tons), and the oversupply pattern has not been reversed.

Demand side: Stainless steel is weak and stable, dragged down by new energy

Stainless steel demand remains stable: On May 15, the spot price of stainless steel was 13,255 RMB/ton, up 1.6% from the previous week, but steel mills' production schedules fell month-on-month, the manufacturing industry recovered slowly, and nickel demand only maintained rigid demand.

New energy demand weakens: ternary precursor orders are weak, nickel sulfate prices are falling, and the marginal pull effect of new energy on nickel consumption continues to weaken.

Market outlook: Macro sentiment improves, cost support strengthens, and nickel prices rise; but oversupply pressure remains, demand recovery is weak, and the long-short game continues. It is expected that the nickel price range will fluctuate upward.

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