Currently, the global nickel market faces structural oversupply. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the surge in low-cost secondary nickel supply from Indonesia and sluggish demand growth in downstream sectors such as stainless steel, resulting in sustained downward pressure on prices. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the industry's competitive focus will shift from scale expansion to high-quality development centered on technology, cost efficiency, and sustainability. High-cost capacity will accelerate its exit, while vertical integration along the industrial chain deepens. High-value-added sectors and green, low-carbon materials will emerge as new growth drivers.

Analysis and Assessment of Industry Development Trends

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the nickel industry will align with the direction of “optimizing and upgrading traditional industries,” transitioning from scale expansion to quality-driven growth.

1. Total growth is expected to slow while structural optimization accelerates. The rapid capacity expansion driven by Indonesian investment in the past has led to structural oversupply and profitability challenges in the industry. Guided by the concept of high-quality development, the nickel industry's total growth will enter a medium-to-low growth plateau over the next five years. Market mechanisms and rational investment will prompt the gradual exit of high-cost production capacity. Demand will exhibit a differentiated pattern: stainless steel applications will maintain steady growth, while new energy batteries remain the core growth driver—though growth rates will become more rational, aligning with technological advancements and actual consumption. By phasing out outdated capacity and enhancing product value-added, the industry's overall profitability is expected to recover, achieving a fundamental shift from pursuing “quantity” to enhancing “quality.”

2. Regional restructuring accelerates, aligning with markets and resources. The current model of high capacity concentration in Indonesia has exposed supply chain vulnerabilities. Future industrial layout will follow the principle of “optimizing industrial distribution and promoting orderly relocation,” shifting from single-resource dependency to multidimensional coordination among resources, markets, and policies. Indonesia will maintain its dominant position, but its capacity will upgrade toward integrated industrial parks featuring supporting refining and material processing to enhance the value chain. To strengthen supply chain resilience, downstream demand will drive the localization of refined nickel and high-end material production near markets, creating a complementary yet competitive dynamic with Indonesia's primary products. Domestic capacity will accelerate internal optimization, phasing out outdated facilities while relocating to western regions abundant in green electricity to align with low-carbon manufacturing requirements.

3. Deepening capacity restructuring: Integration and scale become mainstream. To resolve the structural imbalance of low-end surplus and high-end shortage, the industry will prioritize upgrading capacity toward high-end, green, and integrated solutions. Leading enterprises will pursue vertical integration to build full industrial chains, enhancing concentration and risk resilience. Technological pathways continue evolving: HPAL processes gain investment focus for aligning with battery-grade raw material demands; RKEF processes will undergo continuous optimization for energy savings and consumption reduction; new technologies like oxygen-enriched side-blown processes will be explored and applied. Green and low-carbon practices will become core competitive advantages, with production capacity utilizing green electricity gradually gaining market premiums.

Capturing Policy Opportunities: Coordinated Development and Green Transformation

The 15th Five-Year Plan's directives on high-quality development of manufacturing supply chains, fostering advanced industrial clusters, and promoting technological upgrades point to policy opportunities for the nickel industry.

1. Market competition is becoming more rational, optimizing the industry ecosystem. As the state regulates disorderly competition, the model of relying solely on cost and policy advantages will become unsustainable. Enterprises will increasingly focus on technological innovation, quality enhancement, and brand building. This will facilitate a reasonable return to overall industry profitability and guide capital toward high-value-added sectors and weak links in the industrial chain.

2. Profit transmission mechanisms improve, restoring profitability in mid-to-downstream segments. Policy initiatives to boost consumption and support downstream industries like new energy vehicles are expected to underpin end-user demand. This will enhance profit transmission mechanisms previously hindered by upstream raw material price volatility. Profit margins for mid-to-downstream enterprises producing nickel salts and battery materials are projected to recover as supply-demand dynamics rebalance.

3. Strengthened industrial cluster effects with green manufacturing as the core. Policy directives on “green manufacturing” and “developing advanced manufacturing clusters” will amplify the effects of existing industrial agglomerations. Building closed-loop industrial clusters—from raw materials to high-end products or battery recycling—through intensive development, cascading energy utilization, and waste recycling will become key pathways for the nickel industry to enhance competitiveness and reduce carbon emissions.

The 15th Five-Year Plan period will be a critical stage for China's nickel industry to achieve high-quality development. Facing complex and volatile domestic and international environments, the industry must adhere to the main theme of “optimization and upgrading.” By proactively adjusting production capacity structures, deepening industrial chain collaboration, and resolutely advancing green and low-carbon transformation, the industry can effectively resolve current challenges and seize new development opportunities. By the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China's nickel industry is expected to establish a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable modern industrial system, providing robust support for the nation's high-quality manufacturing development.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 4, the benchmark price of nickel on SunSirs was 120,433.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.50% compared with the beginning of the month (119,833.33 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.