In November, the domestic electrolytic nickel market struggled amid fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment and a solid fundamental predicament. Spot prices once fell to a five-year low, and although there was an oversold rebound in the latter part of the month, the two major obstacles of "high inventory" and "weak demand" firmly suppressed the upward potential of prices.
Price trend:Under pressure and hitting the bottom, weak fluctuations
As of November 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,366 RMB/ton, a cumulative decrease of 2.35% within the month. The electrolytic nickel market experienced a rollercoaster ride this month, under pressure overall.
Early to mid-November: A continuous decline. Under the triple pressure of a strong US dollar, oversupply, and weak downstream demand, nickel prices continued to fall, hitting a new low in nearly five years.
Late November: Oversold rebound. With the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals, market expectations for interest rate cuts rose, coupled with some restocking activity stimulated by low prices, leading to a technical rebound in nickel prices.
Macroeconomic Overview: Mixed signals, sentiment drove short-term fluctuations
Negative pressure: The strong breakthrough of the US dollar index above the 100 mark had exerted general downward pressure on dollar-denominated metals, which was an important external factor contributing to the downward pressure on prices this month.
Positive factors boosted market confidence in the latter part of the month, with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and signs of easing tensions in US-China trade relations acting as a direct catalyst for the rebound.
Supply side: The overall oversupply situation remained stable, and the mining sector is unlikely to be able to alleviate the immediate shortage
High Inventory Pressure: Inventories on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to accumulate, both reaching their highest levels this year. As of November 27, LME nickel inventories increased by 3,348 tons to 255,450 tons this month, while domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories rose by 2,160 tons to 33,548 tons. The extremely high global visible inventory was the most direct and significant factor suppressing nickel prices.
Raw material imports contracted month-on-month, but overall supply remained ample: In October 2025, China's imports of nickel ore and its concentrates totaled 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 23.50% month-on-month, but still an increase of 11.82% year-on-year. The month-on-month decrease was mainly due to the seasonal factor of the rainy season in the Philippines, which was a normal fluctuation. The positive year-on-year growth indicated that the overall supply of raw materials remained ample.
The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten in the long term: the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, leading to a seasonal decline in mining and shipping volumes in major mining areas. Indonesia plans to lower its 2026 nickel ore production target and may control investment in new smelters, which could slow the growth of global nickel supply in the long term. However, the key point is that these policies have little impact on changing the short- to medium-term oversupply situation.
Demand side: Both traditional and emerging engines stalled
Stainless steel demand was weak: Stainless steel social inventories were accumulating, and some manufacturers were implementing maintenance and production reduction plans. On November 27th, the spot price of stainless steel on the SunSirs was reported at 12,540 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.79% within the month. The volatile bottoming out of the stainless steel industry directly weakened the demand for upstream primary nickel (especially nickel pig iron), and this was transmitted to electrolytic nickel through the industrial chain.
Support for the new energy sector was slowing: The increasing penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology continues to squeeze the market for low- and medium-nickel ternary materials. Coupled with overseas tariff barriers restricting precursor exports, the demand growth momentum for nickel in the new energy sector is insufficient. Despite overall pressure, ternary battery technology itself is rapidly developing towards higher nickel content, which brings new growth points for the quality and structure of nickel used in future batteries, but it is unlikely to reverse the current weak demand in the short term.
Market outlook: Limited upside potential
Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low-level consolidation pattern in the short term. Any rebound driven by macroeconomic sentiment will face the relentless test of high inventory and weak demand, and the upside potential will be extremely limited.
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