The bell of the end of the 2025 decade is approaching, and the global mining industry is standing at a highly challenging crossroads. The energy transition is reshaping the value map of resources, the disputes over key minerals are increasingly prominent, and the major global economies are constantly deploying around resource security. The mining giants active on the international stage are also deploying actively to respond to and welcome the challenges of the new situation.

What are the international mining giants concerned about? What are the important plans and trends of the giants in 2026? Follow the mining industry to have a look!

BHP

In its Economic and Commodity Outlook report published in August this year, BHP said: "In the 2025 fiscal year, the external environment is dominated by policy uncertainties, and tariffs, fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies jointly shape the flow of investment and trade." BHP believes that macroeconomic fluctuations may intensify in the short term, while copper demand remains strong.

BHP expects that the markets for refined copper, uranium and potash will be roughly in balance in the year ahead, or 2026, but steelmaking raw materials and nickel will be in oversupply. Beyond that, population growth, urbanization, rising living standards and the continued build-out of digital and decarbonized infrastructure will underpin demand for steel, non-ferrous metals and fertilizers.

In its 2025 financial-year performance update, BHP revealed its next steps:

In terms of investment growth, BHP Billiton expects to invest $11 billion per year in capital expenditure and exploration activities for the 2026-2027 fiscal year, up from $9.8 billion in the 2025 fiscal year. However, this figure is expected to decline to $10 billion per year in the 2028-2030 fiscal period.
In terms of project progress, the Canadian Jansen project is expected to produce the first batch of potash fertilizer in mid-2027, the growth plan of the Escondida copper mine in Chile is being optimized, the Copper SA copper mine in South Australia is planning to double its production through phased expansion, the Vicuña copper mine project in Argentina is accelerating its layout, and the mid-term goal of the Western Australian iron mine is to achieve a stable capacity of more than 305 million tons per year.
On the sustainable development front, the company plans to achieve a reduction of at least 30% in its Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions from the 2020 fiscal year level by the 2030 fiscal year.
In terms of production guidance, BHP maintained its copper production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year at 18.0-20.0 million tons, with Escondida mine expected to produce 1.15-1.25 million tons. The guidance target for the Western Australian Iron Ore (WAIO) for the 2026 fiscal year is 284-296 million tons (on a 100% basis), and the BMA coal guidance target is 36.0-40.0 million tons (on a 100% basis), and the New South Wales coal mine (NSWEC) guidance target for thermal coal is 14.0-16.0 million tons, all of which are higher than last year.

Rio Tinto

With the commissioning of the Simandou iron mine in November this year, a major milestone in Rio Tinto's operating history and even in the history of global mining has finally been realized. As one of the world's largest iron mine projects, the commissioning of Simandou will bring significant benefits to Rio Tinto, one of the investors, and Rio Tinto also sees this project as an important new growth point in its industry.

On December 4th, Rio Tinto's new CEO, Simon Trott, and his team elaborated on the company's development strategy at the Capital Market Day in 2025, summarizing operational experience into three aspects: outstanding operations, efficient project execution, and prudent capital discipline. They also introduced the three pillars of the business after focusing and streamlining: iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. According to the disclosure of the meeting, Rio Tinto's revenue structure is continuously diversified, with aluminum and copper businesses contributing to sustained growth this year, and the medium-term financial performance is becoming more balanced in the core commodities.

It is understood that Rio Tinto's next plans include the following aspects:

In terms of production growth, the output is expected to increase by 7% by 2025 and achieve a CAGR of 3% by 2030, mainly benefiting from the delivery and capacity expansion of copper (Oyu Tolgoi), iron ore (Simandou), and lithium (Arcade, Rincon) projects.
In terms of capital investment, the unit cost will decrease by 4% from 2024 to 2030. The mid-term capital expenditure guidance target (2028 and beyond) will be brought down below USD10 billion, mainly due to the completion of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine (copper), Simandou (iron ore) and lithium (mainly Rincon) projects, as well as the execution of the Pilbara (iron ore) and Anlang (Bauxite) capacity replacement projects.
In terms of project progress, the under-construction lithium project will be put into production before 2028, with an annual capacity of about 200,000 tons, and the equivalent of lithium carbonate in 2026 will reach 61,000-64,000 tons.
On carbon emission reduction, related capital expenditure is expected to be adjusted to $1 billion-$2 billion (previously $5 billion-$6 billion).
In terms of production guidance targets, Rio Tinto has increased its copper production guidance target for 2025 to 860,000-875,000 tons (previously 780,000-850,000 tons) and its unit cost guidance target to 80-100 cents/pound (previously 110-130 cents/pound). The company has also increased its alumina production guidance target for 2025, which will now exceed the previous 590-610 million tons; primary aluminum production is expected to reach the upper end of the 32.5-34.5 million tons guidance range. The company has reduced its iron ore production guidance target for 2025 to 90-95 million tons (previously 97-114 million tons); its iron ore sales guidance target (100% owned basis) is 323-338 million tons for the Pilbara Iron Ore (100% owned basis) and 5-10 million tons for the Simandou Iron Ore (100% owned basis).

VALE

In 2025, VALE also experienced a "change of leadership" — the new CEO, Gustavo Pimenta, took office on January 1, 2025. According to media reports, the new CEO is ambitious and hopes to lead this Brazilian mining giant back to the pinnacle of the iron ore industry.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), VALE controls about 18% of the global iron ore reserves. In the 2024 fiscal year, VALE's annual report disclosed that its total iron ore reserves reached 15.2 billion tons (mineral content), with a production of 328 million tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2018, exceeding the original target of 310 million - 320 million tons. In 2025, its iron ore production guidance target is between 325 million and 335 million tons, which is an improvement compared to 2024.

According to media reports, Bi Wen Da expressed at an abnormal business activity in June this year that he hopes VALE's iron ore annual output will reach 360 million tons by 2030. "We are steadily regaining the position of the world's largest iron ore mining company," he said. In September this year, VALE officially launched the Capivari mining area, and the company revealed that this project will increase VALE's iron ore annual capacity by about 15 million tons.

Besides iron ore, the copper and nickel industries are also key growth areas for VALE.

On the nickel side, VALE is one of the world's largest producers of nickel, with a value chain that covers mining to refining. The main projects that VALE is currently advancing include the construction of a second furnace at Onça Puma, which is planned to be commissioned in the second half of 2026, increasing nickel production by 12,000-15,000 tons per year.

On the copper front, in February of this year, VALE launched the "Novo Carajás" plan in Pará State, Brazil, announcing an investment of 70 billion reais (equivalent to about 87.05 billion RMB) over the next five years (2025-2030) to develop the Carajás mining area in northern Brazil, aiming to ensure the growth of iron ore and copper mine production. By the end of June, the first copper mine project in the plan, the Bacaba copper mine project, received preliminary approval, with a mine life of 8 years and an average annual copper production of 50,000 tons, expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2028. VALE expects to double its copper production capacity in the next decade.

Based on the information disclosed by VALE in December this year, its production and sales volume expectations for next year are mainly as follows:

Iron ore production is expected to be 335 million - 345 million tons in 2026, up from the target range of 325 million - 335 million tons in 2025.
Cu production is expected to be 350,000 to 380,000 tons and Ni production is expected to be 175,000 to 200,000 tons in 2026.
Capital expenditure is expected to be between $5.4 billion and $5.7 billion in 2026, down from the 2025 guidance of $5.9 billion.
Vale Base Metals, a subsidiary of VALE, has signed an agreement with Glencore to jointly assess a brownfield copper project in the adjacent mining area of the Sudbury Basin in Canada.

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