Recently, the international copper price has been continuously refreshing the historical high, and the cumulative year-on-year increase of the copper futures price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has exceeded 30%. At the same time, the global copper inventory is in short supply, and the LME available inventory has fallen below the key level of 1 million tons, triggering market concerns about the "copper shortage".

Copper, known as the "new oil," has seen a surge in prices. What is its strategic value? How can the supply and demand contradiction be alleviated? Around these hotspots, the Science and Technology Daily reporter interviewed relevant experts.

First question: Why is copper "irreplaceable" during the period of industrial transformation?

The importance of copper stems from its unique physical properties and its deep binding with the global industrial transformation, and it has become a must-have resource in the fields of clean energy, the digital economy, and high-end manufacturing.

"New resource minerals such as copper are the 'soft gold' of the contemporary era. They are irreplaceable and indispensable in fields such as new energy vehicles, semiconductor chips, and defense technology," said Tang Juxing, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering who has been engaged in the exploration and research of strategic minerals such as copper for a long time.

From the dimension of energy transition, copper is the cornerstone of the decarbonization process. The report "Critical Minerals and Energy Transition", published by the International Energy Agency in 2025, indicates that 3-5 tons of copper are required for each megawatt of onshore wind power project, 4-5 tons of copper for photovoltaic projects, and about 80 kilograms of copper for a pure electric vehicle, which is 4-5 times that of traditional fuel vehicles. This means that for every 1 percentage point increase in the global new energy vehicle penetration rate, copper demand will increase by hundreds of thousands of tons. In the construction of global smart grids, the copper consumption of core equipment such as transformers and cables accounts for more than 20%, which can be said to be "no copper, no electrification, and no carbon neutrality".

In May 2025, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development clearly listed copper as a "new strategic raw material", with its consumption covering basic fields such as construction, electricity, and transportation, and it is a core indicator for measuring the industrial vitality of a country. The irreplaceability of copper is also reflected in the value of recycling, with the global share of recycled copper already reaching 35%, which is an important supplement to ensure resource security.

From the dimension of technological development, copper is also the "invisible support" of AI and the digital economy. Relevant research shows that the copper consumption of AI data centers per megawatt reaches 27-33 tons, more than twice that of traditional data centers. The explosive growth of AI computing power demand has led to a surge in demand for high-purity copper foil and precision copper cables.

Second question: How scarce is copper under the squeeze on both the supply and demand sides?

In fact, the global copper mine resources are abundant, but the distribution is extremely uneven.

"About 558 copper mines are in operation worldwide, with a total capacity of about 29.3 million tons in 2025; In 2024, the global copper mine copper-containing production reached 22.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%." said Duan Shaoju, deputy director of the Heavy Metal Department of the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, an assistant to the association's secretary general. From January to September 2025, the global copper mine production continued to grow, with some newly built projects gradually entering the period of capacity release.

But at the same time, the majority of high-quality mines around the world have a service life of more than 50 years, with resource endowments and mining difficulty increasing. The grade of global copper mines has declined from 1.3% in 2005 to about 0.65% at present; the cost of global copper mines is about $6,400 per ton, an increase of 42% compared to 10 years ago. From the perspective of supply-side bottlenecks, overseas resource supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable. New mines that have been put into operation are also constrained by infrastructure, policy environment, geopolitics and many other factors.

The current "scarcity" of copper is not a short-term coincidence, but a concentrated outbreak of long-term contradictions between supply and demand, which can be confirmed by authoritative data and market dynamics: The International Energy Agency's forecast shows that the global copper terminal consumption will increase by 2.5% in 2026; by 2035, the global copper supply gap will reach 30%. This "scarcity" has already been reflected in prices, and in the past three months, the premium of spot and futures copper has reached a new high, indicating that the market competition for immediate resources has entered a white heat.

Question 3: How does technological innovation lead to the stable production of copper in our country?

Strategic emerging industries are becoming the main areas of growth in copper consumption. Data from the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association shows that by 2025, China's copper consumption is expected to reach 154 million tons, with an increase of about 3%. The consumption is expected to reach 3.8-4 million tons this year in the fields of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power and AI artificial intelligence.

Faced with the supply and demand challenges of the copper industry, the tech industry and state-owned enterprises, represented by China Copper Industry, are focusing on three aspects: technological breakthroughs, resource security, and circular utilization, to provide support for the stable development of the industry. The relevant measures have clear scientific research achievements and central enterprise practices to back them up.

"We have always adhered to the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, forming a full industry chain innovation result of 'resource end—smelting end—material end—digital end'." Xu Fu Shun, Deputy General Manager and Chief Engineer of China Copper Industry Co., Ltd., introduced that the company has developed clean separation technology for complex copper-molybdenum ores and small molecule inhibitor interface regulation technology, and at the same time, has built a recovery system for 13 kinds of associated rare metals, realizing efficient and high-value utilization of resources.

In terms of strengthening the layout of resource security, as a major copper producer in China, China Copper Industry has launched the construction of "Smart Mine", which has achieved a 20% increase in mining efficiency and a 15% reduction in energy consumption through 5G + Internet of Things technology. By 2025, the output of refined copper will reach 800,000 tons, accounting for 25% of the total refined copper in China, effectively alleviating the pressure on the supply of primary copper.

"We will focus on the demand for materials in the country's high-end manufacturing field, take innovation as the lead, and fully ensure the supply of high-end new materials," Xu Fushun said.

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