Price trend review

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, on May 9, the spot electrolytic nickel was 124,758 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33%, showing an overall trend of "first rise and then fall, range fluctuation". The specific stage performance is as follows:

Short-term rebound after the holiday

Supported by inventory replenishment demand: After the May Day holiday, some downstream companies replenished stocks at low prices, coupled with the recovery of market sentiment, nickel prices rebounded slightly.

Improved macro sentiment: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes eased, and the metal sector was supported in the short term.

Fundamental suppression appeared: Indonesia's nickel ore supply was tight but nickel iron production capacity was still high, and the global nickel market surplus pattern remained unchanged, suppressing price rebound.

Weak demand: The stainless steel industry was cautious in purchasing, the growth rate of new energy demand slowed down, spot transactions were light, and nickel prices fluctuated and weakened.

Macroeconomics: Intensified overseas policy game, interest rate divergence

UK-US trade agreement landed: The Trump administration reached a new agreement with the UK, retaining the 10% base tariff, canceling steel and aluminum tariffs, but implementing a tiered tariff on automobile imports, and the risk of trade friction remains.

Global central bank policy divergence: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, showing differences in global monetary policies. The US dollar index is strong, suppressing nickel prices.

China-US tariff game: If the United States imposes tariffs on new energy metals in China, it may further affect the flow of nickel trade, which requires continued attention.

Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance, inventory reduction but oversupply has not changed

Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight: the rainy season in May affects mining, and the additional 1.5% nickel product royalties push up costs in the short term, but nickel iron prices are still under pressure.

Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventories fell by 3,648 tons (to 197,670 tons) in the week, and overseas spot pressure eased slightly. Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory fell by 882 tons (to 23,426 tons) this week, and the oversupply pattern has not been reversed.

Demand side: Stainless steel is sluggish, and new energy is insufficient to support

Weak stainless steel market: On May 9, the spot price of stainless steel was 13,042.50 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the beginning of the month. Steel mills' profits were under pressure, and production schedules decreased month-on-month, suppressing nickel demand. Terminal consumption (construction, home appliances) has not improved, and the market's willingness to buy is sluggish.

Weak new energy demand: The order growth of ternary precursor companies is weak, the price of nickel sulfate has fallen, and the pull effect of new energy on nickel prices has weakened.

Market outlook: Weak downstream demand, high inventory pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty have hindered the upward trend; cost support, overseas destocking, and support from below. Long and short interweave, nickel prices are expected to remain in a range of fluctuations.

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