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SunSirs: Overall Weak Performance of China Thermal Coal Prices in March
April 01 2024 10:43:45SunSirs(Selena)

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal was weak in March. On March 28th, the energy index was 979 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.28% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 91.59% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price of thermal coal fluctuated this month. Most coal mines maintain normal production, and now the overall coal supply is basically stable. The purchasing demand for terminal power plants is average, and the market activity is not high, and the overall focus is on implementing long-term coal contracts. On the one hand, downstream ports are experiencing warming weather, and on the other hand, due to the impact of long-term coal replenishment on power plant inventories, they are maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market's coal supply. The overall market release is average, and the terminal market mainly maintains a small amount of rigid demand procurement for thermal coal. In the traditional off-season market context, overall transactions are relatively average.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently shows that in mid March, prices of various coal types across the country fell comprehensively. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,062.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 37.5 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 3.4%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 674.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34.1 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.8%. The price of Shanxi Damian (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 774.4 RMB/ton, a decrease of 38.4 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.7%. The price of Shanxi Youmix (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 888.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 3.7%. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong produced blended coal with a calorific value of 5,800 kcal) is 936.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 35.8 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 3.7%. The price of coking coal (main coking coal with sulfur content<1%) was 1,978.1 RMB/ton, a decrease of 280.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 12.4%.

SunSirs analysts believe that the implementation of long-term cooperative shipping is the main focus in terms of origin, and overall market transactions are weak. In terms of downstream ports, the price of thermal coal is operating weakly. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for electric coal consumption may continue to be average, and the demand for replenishment in non electric industries is average. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to operate weakly, depending on downstream market demand.


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