Latest intelligence on bulk raw materials

Macro

1. [Public budget revenue] According to the Ministry of Finance, from January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the national tax revenue was 7915.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; non-tax revenue was 1746.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.

2. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Board member Waller's latest statement said that he does not expect tariffs to significantly push up inflation, so the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as the July meeting. This statement provides an important signal that the Federal Reserve may restart the easing cycle. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve should act slowly.

3. [Japan PMI] Japan's manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 50.4, the previous value was 49.4. The service industry PMI preliminary value in June was 51.5, the previous value was 51. The composite PMI preliminary value in June was 51.4, the previous value was 50.2.

4. [Shipping] The Baltic Heavy Oil Tanker Index shows that the average international freight rate rose by 12% in the past week. The freight rates of some high-risk routes, such as the Persian Gulf to Europe route and the Asia to Europe route through the Red Sea, rose by as much as 2.5 times. The daily rental of supertankers soared to $55,000 from about $20,000 a week ago.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On June 20, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the July contract of US WTI crude oil futures was $74.93 per barrel, down $0.21 or 0.3%. The most active August contract rose $0.34 and settled at $73.84 per barrel. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was $77.01 per barrel, down $1.84 or 2.3%.

2. [Crude Oil] The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced that it would increase the margin of Brent crude oil futures by 24%. The near-month margin will be raised from $4,710 to $5,860. This adjustment will take effect at the close of trading on June 23 (next Monday) and will be reflected in margin calls on June 24.

3. [Crude Oil] Goldman Sachs said that if only Iran's oil supply is reduced by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent crude oil prices are expected to climb to a peak of about $90 per barrel. If the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz decreases by 50% in one month and continues to decrease by 10% in the next 11 months, Brent crude oil prices are expected to surge to a peak of about $110 per barrel for a short period of time.

4. [Crude Oil] According to data from ship tracking company TankerTrackers, since Israel launched an air strike on Iran on June 13, Iran's daily crude oil exports have increased by 44% from the average level of the past 12 months, with an average daily export of 2.33 million barrels of crude oil.

5. [Coke] Mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet quenched coke by 50 RMB/ton and dry quenched coke by 55 RMB/ton, which will be implemented at 0:00 on June 23, 2025.

Some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places have lowered the price of wet quenched coke by 50 RMB/ton and the price of dry quenched coke by 55 RMB/ton, starting the fourth round of price increases and reductions, which will be implemented at 0:00 on June 23, 2025.

6. [Coal] According to customs data, China's other coal imports in May 2025 were 1.4265 million tons, up 9.84% month-on-month and down 40.06% year-on-year. From January to May, China's total imports of other coal totaled 8.9572 million tons, down 25.64% year-on-year, and the total import amount was US$602 million, down 39.47% year-on-year.

Chemicals

1. [Lithium carbonate] Recently, Tianqi Lithium's annual production of 26,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate technical transformation project was approved.

2. [Resin] Recently, Hengzhiguang (Yunfu) Environmental Protection New Materials Co., Ltd. announced the draft environmental impact assessment for the expansion project of 7,200 tons of resin and 3,850 tons of modified coatings per year. The new production capacity of the project includes: 2,200 tons of acrylic resin, 2,200 tons of water-based acrylic resin, 2,500 tons of automotive paint, 1,200 tons of water-based polyurethane, 1,200 tons of ship paint, 1,100 tons of water-based alkyd resin, 250 tons of alkyd resin, 250 tons of unsaturated polyester resin, and 150 tons of environmentally friendly water-based wood paint.

3. [MDI] It is understood that the Yantai Wanhua MDI unit has been operating at half load since June 11 and is expected to continue until early July.

4. [Bromine] (20250613-0619) The operating rate of bromine enterprises in this period is 58.9%, down 14.15% from the previous week.

5. [Caustic soda] On June 23, the price of liquid caustic soda of Shandong Luxi Chemical was lowered, and the 32% ion membrane caustic soda was lowered by 10 RMB/ton to 830 RMB/ton, and the 400,000 tons/year chlor-alkali unit was operating normally.

6. [Propylene oxide] On June 23, the propylene oxide unit of Lihua YiweiRMB Chemical Co., Ltd. was operating normally, with an ex-factory price of 7,600 RMB/ton, up 120 RMB/ton from the 20th.

7. [Fertilizer] In May 2025, China exported a total of 3.144 million tons of various fertilizers, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. Among them, urea was 2,400 tons, ammonium sulfate was 1.63 million tons, diammonium phosphate was 12,700 tons, and monoammonium phosphate was 15,900 tons.

8. [Baking soda] In May 2025, my country's imports of baking soda were 7,067 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.7%; exports were 90,742 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23.17%.

9. [Acrylic acid] In May 2025, my country's imports of acrylic acid and its salts were 7,174.13 tons, a month-on-month increase of 15.7%; exports were 5,608.47 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25.03%.

10. [Phenol] In May 2025, my country's phenol imports were 30,100 tons, up 25.81% from the previous month, and the average import price was US$842.87/ton, down 5.55% from the previous month. Among them, Saudi Arabia imported the largest amount of 19,100 tons. In May, my country's phenol exports were 4,205.40 tons, down 2.92% from the previous month, and the average export price was US$824.76/ton, down 5.51% from the previous month. Among them, the largest amount exported to South Korea was 3,000 tons.11. [Melamine] In May 2025, China imported 10.29 tons of melamine, down 27.09% from the previous month; and exported 63,000 tons, up 38.16% from the previous month.

12. [Lithium Hydroxide] In May, China's lithium hydroxide exports reached 5,585 tons, up 32.3% from the previous month. Among them, the export volume to South Korea was 3,389 tons, accounting for 61% of my country's total exports, an increase of 65.5% month-on-month; the export volume to Japan was 1,740 tons, accounting for 31.1% of my country's exports, and the volume was basically the same month-on-month. In addition, China's lithium hydroxide imports in May were 842 tons, a decrease of 34% month-on-month.

Rubber and plastic

1. [PC] Lihua Yilijin PC unit has two production lines with a total capacity of 130,000 tons/year. The current load is normal, and there is a plan to expand production by 70,000 tons/year.

2. [PE] It is reported that the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 450,000 tons/year 2# full-density unit will start on June 17, 2025 and end on July 2, 2025; the maintenance of the 350,000 tons/year 2# low-pressure unit will start on June 3, 2025 and end on June 19, 2025.

3. [HDPE] The maintenance loss of PE units in this cycle (June 13-19) is about 128,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons over the same period last week.

Textile

1. [PTA] Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the price of PTA prepayments in June was raised to 5,400 RMB/ton.

Hengli Petrochemical announced that the prepayments of PTA in June were raised by 100 to 5,100 RMB/ton.

2. [Lint Cotton] According to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of June 19, 2025, the national new cotton picking has been completed; the national delivery has basically ended. The national processing rate is 100%, the same as the previous year, and the same as the average of the past four years; the national sales rate is 91.7%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 6.6 percentage points over the average of the past four years.

3. [Cotton Yarn] In May 2025, my country's cotton yarn imports were 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, setting a new low in the same period in the past five years. From January to May, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%.

4. [Textile] From January to May, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States accounted for 14.5% of the total export value, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the same period last year; China's exports to the European Union accounted for 13% of the total export value, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year.

5. [Lint Cotton] The US Department of Agriculture report showed that from June 6 to 12, 2025, the net export contract volume of upland cotton in the United States in 2024/25 was 18,900 tons, an increase of 38% from the previous week and a decrease of 23% from the average of the previous four weeks. The shipping volume was 46,400 tons, a decrease of 13% from the previous week and a decrease of 24% from the average of the previous four weeks.

Steel

1. [Bill] Last week, the inventory of billets of the same caliber in Tangshan's main warehouses and ports was 748,600 tons, an increase of 70,900 tons from the previous week.2. [Steel] The output of the five major steel varieties last week was 8.6851 million tons, an increase of 96,600 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%; the total inventory was 13.3889 million tons, a decrease of 156,700 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.2%; the weekly consumption was 8.8418 million tons, an increase of 1.9%.

3. [Galvanized sheet] On June 20, according to survey data, among the 130 galvanized production enterprises, 55 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 81.29%; the capacity utilization rate was 63.19%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous week; the weekly output was 901,300 tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 470,800 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week.

4. [Galvanized sheet] On June 20, the inventory of coated and plated coil warehouses in major domestic markets was monitored: 1.0626 million tons of galvanized, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week; 267,200 tons of color-coated, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of coated and plated was 1.3298 million tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week.

5. [Manganese silicon] According to incomplete statistics, as of June 20, the inventory of manganese silicon enterprises nationwide was 205,900 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 53,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous week; Ningxia had 130,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week; Guangxi had 4,500 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week; Guizhou had 4,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week; (Shanxi, Gansu, Shaanxi) had 6,300 tons, unchanged; (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing) had 8,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous month.

6. [Silicon Manganese] On June 20, a steel plant in Guangdong priced silicon manganese at 5,700 RMB/ton, with a bidding quantity of 4,000 tons, and the acceptance was tax-inclusive to the factory, with a discount basis.

7. [Silicon Manganese] A group bid for silicon manganese alloy pricing: Hubei 5,580 RMB/ton, quantity 2,700 tons; Jiangsu 5,580 RMB/ton, quantity 500 tons; Yunfu 5,700 RMB/ton, quantity 2,200 tons; all in cash tax-inclusive to the factory.

8. [Silicon Manganese] Customs data showed that my country exported 4,554.988 tons of silicon manganese in May 2025, of which 92.8% was exported to Indonesia. Overall exports in May increased by 33% compared with April, and a total of 12,917.238 tons of silicon manganese were exported from January to May. In May, my country imported 423.924 tons of silicon manganese, which was not much different from the data in April. A total of 4,725.102 tons of silicon manganese were imported from January to May.

9. [Ferrosilicon] According to customs data, China's imports of ferrosilicon (Si>55%) in May 2025 were 13,481.279 tons, down 3.83% from the previous month and up 359.38% from the previous year. From January to May, China's total imports of ferrosilicon (Si>55%) were 71,902.091 tons, up 715.53% from the previous year. In May, China's exports of ferrosilicon (Si>55%) were 35,228.901 tons, down 0.97% from the previous month and down 5.16% from the previous year. From January to May, China's total exports of ferrosilicon (Si>55%) were 154,490.895 tons, down 15.36% from the previous year.

In May, China's imports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) were 120.692 tons, up 901.09% from the previous month and up 794.01% from the previous year. From January to May, China's total imports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) were 178.777 tons, up 105.93% year-on-year. In May, China's exports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) were 1455.401 tons, down 44.53% from the previous month and 37.77% from the previous year. From January to May, China's total exports of ferrosilicon (Si≤55%) were 10834.135 tons, up 7.29% year-on-year.

10. [Crude Steel] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in May 2025 was 86.545 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year; the cumulative crude steel output from January to May was 431.631 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year.

11. [Crude Steel] China Iron and Steel Association: In May 2025, key steel enterprises produced a total of 71.94 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, and a daily output of 2.3207 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6%; produced 64.46 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and a daily output of 2.0793 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; produced 73.16 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, and a daily output of 2.3601 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%. From January to May, key steel enterprises produced a total of 355 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and a daily output of 2.3514 million tons of crude steel; a total of 314 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a daily output of 2.0802 million tons of pig iron; a total of 352 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a daily output of 2.3306 million tons of steel.

Nonferrous metals

1. [Aluminum foil] On June 19, 2025, the Indian Ministry of Finance's Taxation Department issued a notice stating that it accepted the anti-dumping affirmative final ruling made by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry on March 20, 2025 on aluminum foil with a thickness of no more than 80 microns originating in or imported from China, and decided to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty on the Chinese products involved, with a tax amount of US$479-721/ton.

2. [Silicon metal] According to statistics, the social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on June 19 totaled 559,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous week.

3. [Nickel] In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought nickel were 17,687.576 tons, a decrease of 5.65% from the previous month and an increase of 115.32% from the previous year; exports were 13,973.445 tons, a decrease of 16.38% from the previous month; and an increase of 21.52% from the previous year. From January to May, China imported 78,700 tons of unwrought nickel, a year-on-year increase of 123%; exports were 78,588.207 tons, a year-on-year increase of 137.12%. In May 2025, China's net imports of unwrought nickel were 3,714 tons, a slight increase from the previous month.

4. [Ferronickel] In May 2025, China's imports of ferronickel were 848,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 3.8%; an increase of 197,000 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 30.2%. From January to May 2025, China's total imports of ferronickel were 4.516 million tons, an increase of 882,000 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 24.3%.

5. [Copper] Foreign media reported on June 19: Japan's JX Advanced Metals announced that it will cut tens of thousands of tons of refined copper production

Building materials

1. [Pulp] As of June 19, 2025, the sample inventory of pulp in China's mainstream ports was 2.208 million tons, up 1.1% from the previous period of 23,000 tons. The inventory showed a narrow accumulation trend in this cycle.

2. [Cardboard] Recently, Metsä Board closed the BM1 cardboard machine at the Taco plant in Tampere, Finland, ending its cardboard production. The closure resulted in a reduction of 210,000 tons in the company's folding boxboard (FBB) production capacity, accounting for about 13% of the total capacity.

Agricultural and sideline products

1. [Soybean] National Grain and Oil Information Center: According to monitoring, as of mid-June, my country's August soybean purchases have been completed by nearly 80%, September shipments by nearly 30%, and almost no purchases for October-December shipments.

2. [Soybean meal] EU data showed that as of June 15, the total import volume of EU soybean meal increased by 27% year-on-year, of which imports from Argentina increased by 113%.

3. [Soybean meal] Data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) showed that the export volume and price of Brazilian soybean meal fell in the first two weeks of June. The soybean meal export volume from June 1 to 13 was 823,000 tons, while the whole month of June last year was 2.08 million tons.

4. [Rapeseed] Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canada's canola exports were 131,400 tons as of the week of June 15, compared with 158,400 tons in the previous week; rapeseed commercial stocks were 1.1729 million tons. As of June 15 this crop year, Canada's canola exports were 8.8139 million tons, an increase of 54.19% over the same period of the previous year.

5. [Palm oil] Data from shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 20 were 847,695 tons, an increase of 14.31% over the 741,560 tons exported in the same period of the previous month.

6. [Palm Oil] Shipping research agency ITS said that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May were 1.983 million tons, up 43.3% from 1.384 million tons in April. Indonesia's crude palm oil exports in May were 200,061 tons, higher than 46,501 tons in April.

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