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SunSirs: Analysis of Future Forecast of Import Ore (Feb.-Mar.)
February 24 2020 16:20:46SunSirs(Molly)

Future Analysis

According to the analysis of the previous two articles, SunSirs analyst He Hangsheng believes that the fundamentals of domestic imported ore from late February to March may shift from the "supply and demand" pattern to the "supply and demand mismatch" pattern, and the market will also be driven by funds The expected rally in demand has been transformed into a demand-driven rally in which transactions have improved. However, during this period, there will be a pullback under the three major pressures of "high spot prices, reduced production and clearing of steel mills, and continued increase in supply." The duration will mainly depend on the restart of terminal operations and the consumption of finished steel stocks.

As we all know, the normal operation of warehouses and docks is an important part of the circulation of steel. At present, the delay in resuming the work of warehouses and docks has caused a large amount of resources to be unable to be transferred from the steel mills to the social market. . At the same time, downstream resources cannot be activated because resources cannot be removed from the warehouse. Therefore, the resumption of warehouses and docks can also tell the time.

According to SunSirs, as of now, warehouses in the southwest, south, and east of China are recovering rapidly, and Zhou ’s return to work has increased by more than 30%. Northwest ’s performance has been the worst, and return to work has not improved. Northeast and North China have only increased by 10%. From the specific time point of view, next week is still the warehouse resumption period. Chongqing, Shanxi and some parts of the warehouse will be resumed intensively, but there are still over 60 warehouse resumption schedules. In addition, due to shortage of workers and inconvenience of automobile transportation, there are still a large number of warehouses that only unload and not ship, or the overall operating efficiency is low. Therefore, from the current point of view, the time for full-scale resumption of downstream work remains to be discussed. Then the pullback time of mineral prices will continue to increase.

In summary, SunSirs analyst He Hangsheng believes that the price of imported ore may begin to gradually decline in late February, and may rise again in early March, but the price will not exceed current levels. The spot price is expected to be 650-680 yuan / wet ton.

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