According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of iron ore rose first and then fell last week, and fluctuated in a narrow range.

As of the 7th, SunSirs iron ore price index was 748.11, down 0.3% month-on-month. Last week, the price of iron ore fell first and then rose, and fluctuated in a weak trend. The main reason is that the market has entered the off-season of the industry, and the terminal purchasing demand has slowed down. The negative feedback has affected the cost-side market, resulting in a weakening of iron ore prices; in terms of supply and demand, the profits of steel mills have a weakening trend, the average daily molten iron output has shrunk, and there is a possibility of further decline. The export of finished products is lower than market expectations, so the price of iron ore fell first and then rose last week, and fluctuated in a weak trend.

Prediction of the trend of ore prices next week:

In terms of inventory, as of June 5, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 138.2669 million tons, a decrease of 398,900 tons from the previous month; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1399 million tons, a decrease of 126,900 tons from the previous week; the number of ships in the port was 92, an increase of 15 from the previous week.

The port inventory of iron ore last week is shown in the figure above; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 86.9018 million tons, a decrease of 64.15 tons from the previous week. Last week, the release of steel mills' replenishment procurement demand weakened, so the port clearance volume began to shrink. In addition, the profits of steel mills have weakened, the enthusiasm for procurement has weakened, and the production of steel mills has shrunk this week. Last week, the number of ships arriving at the port increased, and with the increase in overseas shipments, it is expected that the port inventory may accumulate this week. This week, we still need to pay more attention to the changes in port iron ore inventory.

In terms of supply, as of June 3, the total global iron ore shipments last week were 34.31 million tons, an increase of 2.423 million tons from the previous month; the total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 28.306 million tons, an increase of 1.014 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 18.968 million tons, a decrease of 740,000 tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 14.793 million tons, a decrease of 2.632 million tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 9.338 million tons, an increase of 1.755 million tons from the previous month.

This week, Australia's shipments decreased slightly and Brazil's shipments increased slightly. The cyclical changes in overseas shipments in Australia and Brazil are mainly affected by seasons and weather. Short-term shipments have changed. In the medium and long term, the loose supply of iron ore has not changed. Iron ore shipments have increased this week, and the supply of iron ore is expected to increase this week.

In terms of demand, as of June 5, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 83.56%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous week; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous week; the profit rate of steel mills was 58.87%, which was flat from the previous week; the average daily molten iron output was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous week; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills was 3.0048 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the operation of steel mills remained at a high level, but due to the possibility of weakening profits of steel mills, the resumption of production was affected. This week, many steel mills have maintenance plans, and the molten iron output is expected to decrease. It is expected that the release of iron ore demand will be slightly reduced this week.

In terms of scrap steel, the price of scrap steel rose first and then fell last week, and fluctuated and stabilized. Last week, scrap steel prices fluctuated; at this stage, steel mills are still profitable and are still motivated to start production, but the market is weakening, and the overall black market is declining, so scrap steel prices in some regions have been adjusted, and it is expected that the scrap steel market will stabilize this week.

In summary, the data analyst of SunSirs believes that on the demand side, steel mills are profitable, but the release of terminal demand has slowed down. Some steel mills are undergoing maintenance this week, and the overall demand is expected to shrink; on the supply side, overseas shipments have changed cyclically this week, and port inventories have a trend of accumulating. Overseas shipments have increased this week, and the overall supply has increased. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand may turn to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. At this stage, the weather has entered the plum rain season, and terminal production is more restricted. Last week, it was mainly affected by the weakening of fundamentals, and terminal demand weakened, driving iron ore downward. This week, iron ore port inventories have a trend of accumulating. It is expected that iron ore will fall first and then stabilize, and maintain a weakening and volatile trend. In the later period, attention should be paid to the profit situation of steel mills and the actual demand situation of the downstream of finished products.

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