The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 1st, and the retail price price of refined oil has been raised again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced five upward adjustments, five downward adjustments, and two stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, and the crude oil change rate remained positive. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 will encounter the "sixth" upward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend first rises and then falls. As of the 30th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $65.11 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $67.61 per barrel. During this price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the cycle, tensions escalated in the Middle East region, and crude oil supply was subject to certain restrictions. During this period, the crude oil market rose sharply. Later, as the geopolitical situation eased and international trade relations gradually eased, the crude oil market fell sharply. Overall, as of the 1st, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is 4.9%, corresponding to an expected increase of 235 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 225 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 89# 0.17 RMB, 92# 0.18 RMB, 95# 0.19 RMB, and 0# 0.19 RMB per liter. The retail price price of refined oil products has been raised again in this round.

In terms of gasoline, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 51%, while the operating rate of major refineries nationwide has risen to around 84%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been relatively normal. In addition, gasoline is at a low inventory level, and with the significant rise in crude oil prices, refineries are operating at higher prices; In the later stage, the crude oil market fell back, and the market's wait-and-see atmosphere intensified, causing further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market first rose and then fell, with little overall change.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has remained normal, while demand has increased due to the recent increase in rainy weather, which has weakened terminal demand. The summer harvest has gradually ended, and agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. However, diesel inventory pressure is not high, and infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. With the rise and fall of the crude oil market, the diesel market has strong resistance to decline.

Looking at the future, the recent geopolitical situation continues to affect international oil prices, and the international oil market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, providing guidance for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, there is not much change in the short-term refinery operating rate, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In addition, the demand for gasoline and diesel is still acceptable, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating. In the later stage, diesel prices may not change much.

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