According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong has recently increased. As of the 29th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,192.8 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.12% in 3 days; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 5,854.4 RMB/ton, with a price trend increase of 0.84%.

Cost aspect: The rise in crude oil prices has provided significant support for the cost of refined oil products

The crude oil market prices have risen. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.37 per barrel. The crude oil market is resonating with multiple positive factors such as the impact of the US winter storm on supply and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The core driving force is the significant short-term supply disturbance, coupled with the rebound of geopolitical risk premiums, and the concentrated release of bullish sentiment in the market. The trend of the crude oil market continues to rise. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen accordingly.

Supply side: Shandong local refining plant starts production to maintain normal supply of refined oil products

Recently, the operation of Shandong's refineries has been relatively stable, with an average operating rate of around 53%. The main refineries in the country have recently seen an increase in load reduction, resulting in a decline in operating rates. This has led to low levels of resource inventory in some units and a decrease in social inventory of cost oil, which has had a certain boosting effect on the market and led to an increase in gasoline and diesel market prices.

Demand side: Demand is still acceptable, gasoline fluctuates, diesel rises

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' travel have been normal, but with the decrease in temperature, the expansion of rainy and snowy weather, and the increase in the frequency of private car use, the demand for gasoline in the domestic market is still guaranteed. However, the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a slight increase in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal recently, while the demand side is still dominated by essential needs. The recent increase in low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern regions has hindered diesel infrastructure and logistics transportation. In addition, the use of diesel in agriculture has come to an end, and the demand for diesel has not changed much compared to before. As a result, the diesel market has slightly increased.

Short term oil prices will still be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, and bullish sentiment may continue. In the near future, with supply disruptions not completely subsiding, geopolitical risks continuing to rise, and strong expectations of OPEC suspending production increases, oil prices may still have room for upward movement. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In terms of gasoline, due to the impact of the Spring Festival travel rush, the demand for gasoline has increased, and it is expected that the gasoline market price may continue to rise in the later period. There are currently no favorable factors for diesel demand, and the overall performance is average. It is expected that the diesel market will mainly fluctuate.

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