According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of iron ore rose first and then fell last week, and fluctuated in a narrow range. The main reason for the decline in iron ore prices last week was the rainy weather, which slowed down the terminal purchasing demand, and the negative feedback affected the cost-side market, resulting in the weakening of iron ore prices; in terms of supply and demand, the profit situation of steel mills is good and the purchase is active, which supports the growth of daily average molten iron output. However, the molten iron output has been high for many days and may decline. The sustainability of finished product exports also needs to be watched, so the price of iron ore fell first and then rose last week, and fluctuated in a weaker direction.

Forecast of the trend of ore prices next week:

In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons from the previous month; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2709 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous week; the number of ships in the port was 89, an increase of 3 from the previous week. The port inventory of iron ore last week is shown in the figure above; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills nationwide was 89.2548 million tons, a decrease of 35.68 tons from the previous week. Last week, the demand for replenishment purchases by steel mills continued to be released, so the port clearance volume increased. In addition, the profits of steel mills improved and the production enthusiasm was high. Steel mills are likely to maintain the current production situation this week. However, the number of ships arriving at the port increased last week, and with the increase in overseas shipments, the port inventory may accumulate this week. This week, we still need to pay more attention to the changes in port iron ore inventory.

In terms of supply, as of May 19, the total global iron ore shipments last week were 33.478 million tons, an increase of 3.188 million tons from the previous month; the total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 27.061 million tons, an increase of 2.836 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 18.887 million tons, an increase of 461,000 tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 16.35 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 8.868 million tons, an increase of 2.371 million tons from the previous month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly this week. The cyclical changes in overseas shipments from Australia and Brazil are mainly affected by seasons and weather. Short-term shipments have changed. In the medium and long term, the loose supply of iron ore has not changed. Iron ore shipments fell last week, and it is expected that the supply of iron ore will be reduced next week.

In terms of demand, as of May 23, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 83.69%, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week; the profit rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week; the average daily molten iron output was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous week; the current daily consumption of imported ore in the sample steel mills was 3.0187 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons from the previous week.

ast week, the operation of steel mills remained high, and the enthusiasm for operation was high. At present, the profits of steel mills continue to be good, the scale of steel mill operation is stable, and the resumption of production is active. This week, steel mills in many places have maintenance plans, and the output of molten iron is expected to decrease. It is expected that the release of iron ore demand will be slightly reduced next week.

In summary, the data analyst of SunSirs believes that on the demand side, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the current scale of operation will continue to be maintained. Some steel mills will be overhauled this week, and the overall demand situation is expected to be more common; on the supply side, overseas shipments will change cyclically this week, and port inventories will continue to be reduced.

Overseas shipments will be reduced this week, and the overall supply will be reduced. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand may turn to a situation of double reduction in supply and demand.

At this stage, the weather has entered the plum rain season, and the terminal operation is more restricted. Last week, it was mainly affected by the weakening of fundamentals, and the weakening of terminal demand led to the decline of iron ore. This week, the port inventory of iron ore has a trend of accumulation.

It is expected that iron ore will fall first and then stabilize this week, and maintain a weak and volatile operation. In the later period, attention should be paid to the profit situation of steel mills and the actual demand of the downstream of finished products.

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