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Rapeseed Meal Bottomed out and Rebounded, Rapeseed Oil Surged Higher

March 16 2021 09:21:14     Ruida Futures (Linda)

High market situation: Rapeseed contract trading is cold, not suitable for operation. Rapeseed meal 2105 contract + 2.06%, the highest price of 2793 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 2677 yuan / ton, the closing price of 2780 yuan / ton; trading volume of 1158142 hands, positions of 324812 hands, - 1620 hands; rm5-september price difference + 44 yuan / ton. Rapeseed oil 2105 contract + 0.37%, the highest futures price was 10957 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 10604 yuan / ton, closing at 10821 yuan / ton; trading volume was 451086, positions were 132536, + 1530; oi5-9 contract price difference was + 445 yuan / ton.

Market quotation: according to the world granary data, the spot price of imported rapeseed oil (including imported rapeseed pressing) is 11278 yuan / T, + 120 yuan / T, and the spot price of rapeseed meal is 2705 yuan / T, + 20 yuan / T.

Daily warehouse receipts: 1215 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts, 0 on the day, 1055 effective forecasts; 2310 rapeseed meal warehouse receipts, 0 on the day, 0 effective forecasts.

Position changes: the top 20 long positions of rapeseed oil mainstream funds were 143391, + 3865, the top 20 short positions were 155025, + 5862, and the clearance positions were 11643; the top 20 long positions of rapeseed meal mainstream funds were 292549, + 20967, the top 20 short positions were 340187, + 6129, and the clearance positions were 47638. News: ice's Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower on Friday, trading volatility within the day, due to resistance and profit taking operations to pressure futures prices. A stronger Canadian dollar also put pressure on rapeseed prices. As of the close, the May period closed down about $0.40 at $801.10 per ton, while the July period closed down about $1.40 at $633.30 per ton.

Conclusion: technically, the trading of rapeseed contract is light, and trading is not recommended. Rapeseed meal: due to USDA report of the US Department of agriculture maintaining various expectations of the US soybean market, and the global ending inventory forecast data was finally slightly higher than the previous market expectations, the impact on the soybean market was neutral and short. In addition, the global rapeseed oil supply was tight and the oil was strong, and the oil meal arbitrage depressed the price of soybean meal, the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed down on Friday, while Canada and Canada closed down The supply of old season rapeseed in EU is tight, and the import cost of rapeseed continues to rise. At home, the local outbreak of African swine fever and the low level of poultry stock led to weak feed demand. By the week of March 12, the stock of rapeseed meal in Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian had increased to 60000 tons, an increase of 11.52%. Meanwhile, the trend of oil was strong, and the arbitrage of buying oil and selling meal depressed the price of rapeseed meal. However, from February to March, there was a small amount of soybeans in Hong Kong, and many oil plants shut down in March to April due to lack of soybeans. In addition, aquaculture started slowly in the middle and late March, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of short-term rapeseed meal will fluctuate. Rapeseed meal 2105 contract intraday homeopathy participation.

Rapeseed oil: the grain trade association cocera lowered its forecast of EU rapeseed production to 16.6 million tons this year. In addition to the low supply of Canadian rapeseed, the tight supply of old crops continued to support the price of rapeseed. However, due to the long profit taking and the strong Canadian dollar, the trading of ice rapeseed futures was volatile and closed slightly lower on Friday. MPOB showed that the inventory of palm oil in February decreased by 1.8% to 1.3 million tons, far lower than the 1.42 million tons expected by market analysts, and the palm oil production in February hit the lowest level in five years, boosting oil prices. At home, the market demand is in a phased off-season, and the oil price difference between rapeseed oil, soybean oil and palm oil is large, which affects the consumption of rapeseed oil and drags down the price of rapeseed oil. However, there is no pressure on the domestic oil supply. Although the rapeseed oil inventory increased to 221600 tons last week, it decreased by 29% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the United States pushed forward the 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, with abundant liquidity and strong interest in the bulk commodity market, especially in the oil with tight inventory, which brought favorable support to the domestic oil market, and the rapeseed oil market as a whole is still in a stable state It is in high position and strong operation. But the early rise more, long profit taking impact, short-term rapeseed oil or continue to shock adjustment. Operation: rapeseed oil 2105 contract to maintain long thinking.

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