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Rapeseed Meal Opened Low, and Rape Oil Futures Prices Stabilized

January 19 2021 08:59:39     Ruida Futures (Linda)

Disk situation: The rapeseed contract transaction is deserted and it is not suitable for operation. Rapeseed meal 2105 contract-1.70%, the highest future price was 3122 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3048 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3062 yuan/ton; trading volume was 840341 ​​lots, open interest was 389040 lots, -21692 lots; RM5-9 month spread 8 yuan/ton. Vegetable oil 2105 contract +0.20%, the highest future price was 9997 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 9777 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9944 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 323,805, and the open interest was 142,167, +2822 yuan / ton.

Market quotation: According to the data of the world granary, the spot price of imported rapeseed oil (including imported rapeseed crush) is 10543 yuan/ton, -40 yuan/ton, and the spot rapeseed is 2944 yuan/ton, -52 yuan/ton.

Daily warehouse receipts: 2000 vegetable oil warehouse receipts, 0 for the day, 1000 valid forecasts; 3388 rapeseed meal warehouse receipts, 0 for the day, and 0 valid forecasts.

Position changes: the top 20 long positions of rapeseed oil mainstream funds reported 109,828 lots, +3285 lots, the top 20 short positions reported 123949 lots, +1451 lots, both long and short positions were increased, and the net short position was 14,121 lots; mainstream rapeseed funds The top 20 long positions reported 276,905 lots and -9099 lots, and the top 20 short positions reported 3,4020 lots and -9138 lots. Both long and short positions were reduced, and the net short position was 63,115 lots. News: Canadian canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed mixed last Friday, weighed down by the drop in the rapeseed market, and after the rise, there was a long profit. As of the close, the March futures closed up 0.10 Canadian dollars to close at 687.80 Canadian dollars/ton. May futures fell by about C$3.50 to close at C$668.80/ton.

Summary: Technically, the rapeseed contract is lightly traded and trading is not recommended. Regarding rapeseed meal, long profits were closed and favorable rains appeared in South American producing areas. The CBOT soybean futures futures price fell last Friday, which led to a decline in domestic meal prices. Domestic aquaculture has basically stagnated, and the serious early losses of poultry farming have led to the current low inventory, delayed terminal consumption and poor demand. However, soybean import costs are high and rapeseed imports are not large. The operating rate of rapeseed oil plants continued to decline last week. Rapeseed meal stocks fell by 10.8% to 41,000 tons, which may limit the room for rapeseed meal correction. Short-term rapeseed meal prices are expected Or concussive finishing mainly. From the disk perspective, rapeseed meal opened lower today, and the bulls took profits to close their positions and lighten their positions. Operational: RM2105 contract temporarily wait and see.

In vegetable oil: long profits were closed and favorable rains appeared in South American producing regions. The CBOT soybean futures price fell last Friday, which put pressure on domestic oil prices and opened at low prices. At the same time, the price gap between rape oil, soybean oil, and palm oil is large, and the severe epidemic in the north affects logistics, and the slower delivery speed of oil plants may affect the consumption of rape oil. However, the import volume of rapeseed is not large, the crushing volume of rapeseed oil plant remains low, and the rapeseed oil inventory fell to 142,500 tons last week, a decrease of 12%, and the soybean palm oil inventory also remained low. There is no pressure on the oil supply. There is also a demand for stocking, and it is expected that the vegetable oil market will show a high and strong volatility pattern. On the disk, after the opening of the 2105 vegetable oil contract fell today, it quickly pulled back and then oscillated and strengthened, and there is a trend of correction and stability. Operationally: IO105 contracts are treated with multiple ideas.

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