SunSirs: Sugar Supply Is Tight and Sugar Price Is Supported

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of white sugar rose slightly this week, with the average price of first-class sugar at the beginning of the week being RMB 5723 yuan/ton, and the average price of first-class sugar at the end of the week being RMB 5733 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.17%.

Cause analysis

Sugar production in the sugar-making period of 2018/19 has been completed. In this sugar-making period, 10.76.04 million tons of sugar were produced (10.314 million tons of sugar were produced in the same period of the last sugar-making period), which was 450,000 tons more than that in the same period of the previous sugar-making period. Among them, 9.445 million tons of sugarcane sugar were produced (9.167 million tons of sugarcane sugar were produced in the same period of the last sugar-making period); 1.3154 million tons of Sugarbeet sugar were produced (1.497 million tons in the same period of the last sugar-making period). At the end of September, due to continued supply constraints, sugar prices climbed to a peak of 6,000 yuan per ton in the 2018/2019 squeezing season. After National Day, the new squeezing season officially opened in 2019/2020, and sugar prices entered a stagnant stage.

Internationally: In the squeezing season of 2019/2020, there will not be much room for improvement in the international sugar market's trade flow. The Indian government's sugar export subsidy policy may prolong the downturn of the global sugar market. In August, the Indian government approved a subsidy of 62.68 billion rupees for sugar mills to export 6 million tons of sugar in the 2019/2020 squeezing season. Indian sugar producers will export sugar to China, Iran and other countries on October 1. In addition, Thailand exported 7.9473 million tons of sugar from the end of July in the squeezing season of 2018/2019, an increase of about 4.04% over the same period last year.

Future Market Forecast

SunSirs white Sugar Analyst believes that the demand for National Day reserve is over, but the low inventory in the production area makes sugar factories intense to bid. In addition to the rebound of international sugar prices, sugar prices are expected to be stable in the short term or strong in the near future.

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